Thread by @GoodwinMJ

1/ How might the Brexit Party hit the Conservative Party at a general election?

A short thread detailing figures in today's Telegraph bit.ly/2JHFILd

#EP2019 #EUelections2019
#brexit #brexitparty

2/ With Prime Minister May on her way out, the Brexit Party about to surge & the Conservative Party's future unclear we've run some numbers on how the Brexit Party could hit the Conservatives at a general election

3/ This combines constituency level data on 2017 general election with recent Westminster vote intention polls to estimate the flow of voters to the Brexit Party, giving us median and maximum estimates

4/ Using 2017 as a baseline we use these data to forecast seats that the Conservatives could lose if there was a general election according to whether the Brexit Party polled 15%, 20% or 30% of the vote (UKIP polled 12.7% in 2015)

5/ Headline figures:

Maximum estimate Cons lose:

67 seats if BP obtained 15%
81 seats if BP obtained 20%
113 seats if BP obtained 30%

Median estimate Cons lose:

59 seats if BP obtained 15%
73 seats if BP obtained 20%
98 seats if BP obtained 30%

6/ Likely Conservative losses if BP reach at least 15% include Amber Rudd, George Eustice, David Jones, Nicky Morgan, Ben Bradley, Stephen Crabb, Chloe Smith, Justine Greening, Zak Goldsmith (& Soubry)

7/ 15% level losses include Aberconwy, Aberdeen S, Angus, Ayr Carrick Cumnock, Banff & Buchan, Blackpool North, Bolton West, Broxtowe, Calder Valley, Camborne Redruth, Carlisle, Camarthen West, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chingford, Chipping Barnet, London & Westminster, Clwyd W ...

8/ Copeland, Corby, Crawley, NE Derbyshire, North Devon, Filton & Bradley Stoke, Finchley, Gordon, Harrow E, Hastings & Rye, Hendon, Lewes, Loughborough, Mansfield, Middlesbrough, Milton Keynes, Moray, Morecambe & Lunesdale, Morley Outwood, Northamptons, Norwich N

9/ Ochil & S Perthshire, Pendle, Preseli, Pudsey, Putney, Reading West, East Renfrewshire, Richmond, Rossendale, St Albans, St Ives, Scarborough, Southampton Itchen, Southport, Stevenage, Stirling, Stoke South, South Swindon, Telford, Thurrock, Truro, Walsall N, Watford, Wells

10/ At a 20% Brexit Party vote Con MPs who start to fall could include Boris Johnson, Stephen Hammond, Daniel Kawcyznski

11/ At the high and what feels like an implausible 30% you start to see people like David Mundell, Ken Clarke, Johnny Mercer, Philip Davies, Justin Tomlinson, Grant Schapps losing their seats as losses rise above the 100 mark

12/ Farage & Tice of course might also go for a more targeted strategy, as in 2010 by giving ERG & committed hard Leavers a "free pass" by not standing Brexit Party candidates against them

13/ There are about 68-ish of these ERG + rebels who could be given a free pass

14/ Assuming Brexit Party at 15% and maximum flow estimates then under this targeted strategy the Cons still lose around 59 seats

15/ Whatever way you look at it, basically, if Farage manages to replicate the UKIP share of 2015 at 15% then the Brexit Party causes serious Conservative losses, ushering in the most left-wing Labour government that Britain has ever seen

16/ Unless the Tories can find a way of squeezing the Brexit Party vote down to low single digits then they have very little, if any, chance of fending off Jeremy Corbyn and Labour

17/ And remember, in 2015 Cons navigated UKIP & Labour partly by stealing Lib Dem seats. This time around, however, the Lib Dems likely to be resurgent while Lab spreading beyond London into south east. This leaves next Conservative leader with little room for manoevre /ends