Thread by @GoodwinMJ

Salvini polled 6% in 2014 - just six per cent.
He is about to poll above 25%.

If you only look at recent snapshot polls and not the longer-term trends that are rumbling through Europe then you miss the real story.

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1132740416539959296

What you tend to find is that folks who lean left choose a few of the recent polls, ignore the long-term trends and then present results as "disappointing".
I think this is inaccurate and A misleading way of discussing and understanding longer-term political change in Europe

Take Lega as an example. This once tiny separatist party took only 6% five years ago while at national elections it's never come close to the 25-29% tonight. So, it's far more significant than the snapshot takes have you believe.

Or look at Le Pen, through a longer-term view:

1984 11%
1989 11.7%
1994 10.5%
1999 5.7%
2004 9.8%
2009 6.3%
2014 24.9%
2019 23% -ish

Or look at Poland's Law & Justice through a longer-term view:

2004 12.7%
2009 27.4%
2014 31.8%
2019 42.4%

Or look at Germany through a longer-term view:

1984 0.8%
1989 0%
1994 0.2%
1999 0.4%
2004 0.9%
2009 1.32%
2014 7.0%
2019 10.5%

Or look at Netherlands through a long-term view:

Basically nothing during 1980s and 1990s:
2004 3%
2009 17%
2014 13%
2019 15%

I could go on... Hungary, Sweden, UK. What we are seeing, in my view at least, is not a sudden 'explosion' but stubbornly persistent rise/entrenchment of a party family that has been building since 1990s. We need to take that long-term view to grasp what's playing out in Europe