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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
French asked: "How would you vote if Maastricht referendum happened today?"

How they voted in 1992
Yes 51%
No 49%

How all adults would vote today:
Yes 48%
No 52%

How only those eligible to vote in '92 would vote now
Yes 43%
No 57%

ifop May 20-21
#EP2019 #EU #Europeennes2019
Among workers the picture is far starker. Among those who were eligible to vote in 1992, today no less than 87% say that if Maastricht was re-run they would vote "Non".
Here is the link to data in case people would like to explore
ifop.com/wp-content/upl…
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Salvini polled 6% in 2014 - just six per cent.
He is about to poll above 25%.

If you only look at recent snapshot polls and not the longer-term trends that are rumbling through Europe then you miss the real story.
What you tend to find is that folks who lean left choose a few of the recent polls, ignore the long-term trends and then present results as "disappointing".
I think this is inaccurate and A misleading way of discussing and understanding longer-term political change in Europe
Take Lega as an example. This once tiny separatist party took only 6% five years ago while at national elections it's never come close to the 25-29% tonight. So, it's far more significant than the snapshot takes have you believe.
Read 8 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
1/ How might the Brexit Party hit the Conservative Party at a general election?

A short thread detailing figures in today's Telegraph bit.ly/2JHFILd

#EP2019 #EUelections2019
#brexit #brexitparty
2/ With Prime Minister May on her way out, the Brexit Party about to surge & the Conservative Party's future unclear we've run some numbers on how the Brexit Party could hit the Conservatives at a general election
3/ This combines constituency level data on 2017 general election with recent Westminster vote intention polls to estimate the flow of voters to the Brexit Party, giving us median and maximum estimates
Read 17 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
'Identity politics is tearing society apart' - looking forward to this debate tonight w/ Lionel Shriver, Trevor Phillips, David Lammy & Dawn Foster @intelligence2 #iq2
What do you think? "Is identity politics tearing society apart?"
Shriver: "Without victimhood, they have no idea who they are".
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