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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
"...even with break-neck electrification of vehicles, buildings, & industry, unprecedented improvements in energy efficiency, completely decarbonized
power generation, & CO₂ removal ... will be essential for the US to decarbonize by midcentury"
1/
 rhg.com/research/captu…
For the US to reach net-zero emissions by 2045 between 560 & 1,850MtCO₂/yr will need to be removed by DAC & permanently stored, depending on the availability of other CO₂ removal options, such as BECCS & afforestation, & the pace of electrification in other sectors.
2/
Even under a less ambitious US target of 83% below 2005 levels in 2050, CO₂ removal remains necessary to offset stubborn sources of CO₂ such as long-haul aviation & shipping, & energy-intensive industrial activities.
3/
While some niche opportunities may exist now where DAC is economic,
current market opportunities & policy incentives do not provide enough support for the first large-scale DAC plant to break even.

Costs (in red) & much higher than revenue (green) & policy support (blue).

4/
The report (Executive Summary) seems to strike a good balance between the need for CO₂ removal, while not downplaying the need for mitigation. It outlines the risks. Have a look! @rhodium_group 5/5
rhg.com/research/captu…
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More from @Peters_Glen see all

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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
Are Australian GHG emissions stable or skyrocketing?

It depends on how you plot it, & putting LULUCF at the bottom of the figure makes it look better than otherwise.

Figure from the Australian National Inventory Report unfccc.int/documents/1957…

1/
Putting the LULUCF emissions at the top, & changing colours, makes a huge difference. Excluding LULUCF, with all its complexities & tricks, reveals that Australian GHGs have grown a solid 32% since 1990, instead of down 11% with LULUCF.



2/
GHG emissions from the energy sector have grown the most, but slowed recently. Emissions from transport continue onwards & upwards.

Better build that solar / wind & roll out those EVs. Oh, elected the wrong government...



3/
Read 4 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
Wind & solar (green) are a very small share of India's energy use & coal use continues rapid growth (as do CO₂ emissions).

It is a long, long way for renewables to displace coal in India... Why is India then hailed as a climate leader?

1/ cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/nyhet…
India is building huge amounts of renewables, but this does not reduce emissions unless it displaces coal power (which it doesn't). India further supports its coal industry. It will take decades of rapid renewables growth to meaningfully reduce coal use. 2/
Perhaps India is a climate leader for renewables deployment, but it is not a climate leader for reducing emissions. Likewise, Norway is a climate leader for EV deployment, not for reducing emissions. It seems climate leadership is not about reducing emissions?
3/3
Read 3 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
I have finally updated to Version 2 of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) database. The data has a few updates, a few new variables, & now includes the 1.5°C scenarios.

Still need to tweak figures & code (of course)...

1/
 tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Acti…
The updated database includes CCS in terms of CO₂, so I no longer need to estimate it from fuel consumption.

But, for some reason, GCAM has quite some CCS already...

2/
Bioenergy with Carbon Capture & Storage (BECCS) where 10-15GtCO₂/yr is not unusual in mitigation scenarios, & it is used in nearly all mitigation scenarios.

3/3
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
The world's fossil fuel CO2 emissions reached a record high in 2018, according to the @IEA

That's really terrible news for meeting global climate goals:

CO2 must peak and rapidly decline, to have any chance of avoiding dangerous warming.

THREAD

1/
iea.org/geco/
The IEA findings confirm preliminary estimates published by @gcarbonproject in December, which also found fossil fuel CO2 reaching a record high.

(Overall CO2 grew slightly slower than from fossil fuels, GCP said, due to falling land use emissions).

2/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-fossi…
The main problem was that global energy demand rose at its fastest pace for a decade (coloured bar on the right of the chart).

3/
iea.org/k3k0/
Read 11 tweets
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Brandon Smithwood
@BSmithwood
I have read @JesseJenkins's piece, @JulianSpector's write up of it. Having nerded out on this topic for several years now I just can't let this one go both b/c I find it fascinating and b/c I think Jesse & co. are falling into a trap of only looking @ short run values. (1 of ?)
a typical dist solar system will be online for 30+ years. It will come as we (hopefully) decarbonize much of the economy by electrifying it. As we do that it will be important to ensure we avoid this growth from driving up peak loads and thereby infrastructure investment.(2 of ?)
If we only look at short run values-- the avoidance of line losses, the avoidance of transmission congestion, the ability to avoid a specific distribution system upgrade we are massively undervaluing DERs (3 of ?)
Read 31 tweets
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Nicky Ison
@nickymison
If you were a journo or opinion editor trying to get better at reporting on #climate & #energy, what questions would you be asking?

Thread

@KetanJ0 @TennantReed @simonahac @dylanjmcconnell @craigmemery @SimonCorbell @OBenPotter @1MarijaPetkovic @miriamlyons
1/ If the article/writer claims a certain cost of acting on climate, does it also make claims about the cost of not acting on climate?
2/ If there are claims made about industry moving off shore, where will the industry go (since the majority of the world is acting on climate)?
Read 9 tweets
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Alejandro Nuñez
@anunezjimenez
France presented today its #energy and #climate strategy. It has four goals:
1 - To cut #energy consumption
2 - To turn away from #fossilfuels
3 - To diversify its #energy mix
4 - To keep things affordable, increase jobs and innovate medias.businessimmo.com/default/0002/3…
The overall target of France's strategy for #energy and #climate is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 through cutting GHG emissions down significantly and also increasing carbon sinks
France wants to cut #CO2 emissions down to 227 Mt in 10 years by cutting final #energy consumption 14% and primary #energy from #fossilfuels by 35%. Also, increasing #renewable heating and doubling the #electricity from renewables. Note: transport emissions vanish by 2050.
Read 11 tweets
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Andrew Leach 🇨🇦
@andrew_leach
"(A price on emissions) provides
an economic incentive for improved energy efficiency, a switch to cleaner energy sources
where possible, and improved management of non-combustion greenhouse gas emissions." -Turning the Corner Plan, 2008, under PM Stephen Harper.
"A portion of the costs...will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices, thereby changing the relative price signals to the rest of the economy and favouring low-emitting investment and consumption choices." -Turning the Corner Plan, 2008, under PM Stephen Harper.
"As consumers & industry respond to the “push” of higher energy prices and the “pull” of an offset market for emissions reductions, significant improvements in energy efficiency are foreseen as a result of...changes in
production process(es) and consumer habits." -yep, same plan
Read 4 tweets
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___________
@parking_seal
#Probablemente ([#EO]#probable🍀/[#EN]#Probably🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿)
Read 357 tweets

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