Thread by @AlbertoNardelli

A few thoughts on #EP2019 now that most of the results are in.

The key words are fragmentation and polarisation.

1) if you compare 2019 & 2014 results, the main centre-right and centre-left blocs have lost seats. Liberals, greens, and far-right nationalists have made gains

2) Far-right nationalists as a whole are on similar levels to 2014 & recent elections. Gains are driven by a small number of parties. In several countries support has fallen. Le Pen's first place is mostly symbolic — she did better in 2014.

3) Far-right nationalism isn't going away, it remains a significant force, but it is not a 2019 trend nor is it surging and constantly advancing as much of the narrative and framing of European elections suggests

4) There is one big exception to this: Lega in Italy. Salvini's 34.5% is an extraordinary result. Even more so considering his strength in regions of Italy that for decades have been centre-left strongholds. (map via @you_trend). 40% of Italians voted for far-right nationalists

@you_trend 5) Will Salvini's popularity last? Who knows — Renzi won 40% in 2014, and Italian public opinion shifts quickly (no party since 1994 has won two elections in a row). But yesterday's result confirmed that Salvini's popularity and strength is real.

@you_trend 6) Unless he can convince Orban to join him, Salvini's bloc, and far-right nationalists, in the new European Parliament will make more noise and YouTube videos than have influence. However, European Council dynamics could become interesting

@you_trend 7) Polarisation. One example: support for the AfD (11%) in Germany as a whole has stagnated for a while now. However, the party's support is concentrated and strong in specific states such as Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2019-05…

@you_trend 8) The strong result for the liberals and greens will be very difficult for EU leaders from the main blocs, and EPP in particular, to ignore when it comes to picking top EU jobs and EU's strategic direction.

9) Drop in support for left-wing populist parties is worth noting too.

@you_trend 10) #EP2019 was somewhat of a 27+1 vote. The UK result shouldn't really be compared to other member states. It was a very unique contest defined by one issue. The result mirrors a country fundamentally split in two, polarised, and its two main parties squeezed

@you_trend 11) Finally, pro tip: never make jokes about politics and elections on Twitter.

Slightly longer take: buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…