Thread by @BethRigby

Special @skynews EU elex show 9pm. Anchor @adamboultonSKY with @sarahobolt @michaelthrasher @dljennings.
I’ll be in studio, @lewis_goodall on screens
Covering the counts are @KateEMcCann @joncraig @RaynerSkyNews @TomSkyNews,
@laurabundock @jamesmatthewsky across UK.
Join us!

And in Europe we’ll have our Brussels team @skynewsmichelle and @Stone_SkyNews live in the European Parliament as the results come in from around the 27 EU nations >> news.sky.com/story/eu-elect…

EU elex: North East 1st to declare c10.15pm.
- Brexit party triumph banked
- Tory pain(source: always knew it’d be terrible)
- Lab trounced too: Watch for Wales where Lab’s won every national elex since 1918 (apart from 2009 EU elex Tory win) Tory source says Lab done v badly

#EuropeanElection2019
- North East strong Labour territory
- Brexit region 58% voted leave in 2016 ref
- 2014 EU poll: Lab took 37% vote, UKIP 29% in 2014 poll
- Latest YouGov poll Brexit Party 35% Lab 26%.
- Lab bracing for bloody nose & watch for LDs, picking up Remain votes

#EuropeanElection2019
- 2014 UK result. Lab/Cons failed to top national poll for 1st time. UKIP 28%; Lab 25%; Tories 24%
- 2019 (based on look thru last few polls) Brexit party 30+%, Tories 10-15%, Lab 18-23%, LDs 11-16%
- Brexit triumph. LD surge? Tories/Labour into 3rd & 4th?

Regions breakdown (via the superb @IslaGlaister)
- SE: Farage & Hannah territory. Big stand-off for Brexit Party v Tories. Will the shires turn away from Tories?
- Lib Dems: won their only seat here in 2014 elections. But can they pick up Remain votes in places like Winchester?

SW. Celeb zone with Anne Widdecombe v Rachel Johnson and Lord Adonis for Lab
- UKIP won here 2014 with Tories in second place so have 2 EU seats apiece. How far can Farage eat into Tory vote here?
- Lib Dems/Greens did well in the locals. Latest polling has LDs in 2nd here

East Mids: Annunziata Rees-Mogg standing here.
- UKIP got its biggest increase in vote share in EM in 2014
- UKIP took 33% 2014 2 MEPs. Tories 2 MEPs.
- Polling points to Brexit Party surge. Could pick up 3 seats
- Watch for Lab vote (2nd in polls but struggled in local elex

North West: Tommy Robinson independent candidate
- 2014 Labour 34% UKIP 27%, Brexit party set to top poll.
- But interesting demographics here. Region of Manchester (60% remain) & Wigan (63% leave)
- Will younger Lab voters switch to LDs/Greens?

Scotland
2014: Tories and UKIP won lower share of vote in Scot than any other region
CanEU elex traditionally battle here between SNP & Lab with Tories third. Can Brexit party beat Lab here. Can Tories hold onto its one seat?

London:
- Labour territory. 36.7% of vote in EU elex 2014
- Polls suggest Lab might win 24% this time around, with Brexit party running them close at 20%
- And what of the LDs/Greens. Will remain London punish Labour?
- Tories 2nd in 2014, could come 5th! in 2019

And the EU wide themes
- Right v Left: Major centre right & centre left blocs expected to lose ground to pro-EU reformers eurospectic nationalists
- Macron: These elections as most important since the 1st set in 1979, because EU is facing ‘existential threat’ from populist forces

EU wide themes:
Eurosceptic Populists v pro-EU Cosmopolitans
- How well to the right wing populists do? Watch for Italy’s Salvini and France’s Le Pen.
- Who wins out will shape EU’s future towards either the Macron federal vision of ‘Europe of nations’ vision of Salvini/Orban

Our @SkyNews #EP2019 show 9pm
- Brexit Party expected to top polls. Farage wins on Brexit fail. But remember, UKIP won 2014 poll with 26.6%, so there’s precedent
- I’m watching for Lib Dem surge. Sources tell me it’s looking good
- Could Tories & Lab be pushed off top 2 spots!?

In London (where Labour have 4/8 seats) and topped 2014 poll, am told Lib Dem’s coming in strong. Source says likely they are coming first in Labour Southwark. LDs polled 17% 2014 recent YouGov poll put them in 24%. One to watch for alter