Thread by @TimInHonolulu

1. I've been watching the back and forth between Turkey and the US including media reporting on S-400 sale. I think Erdogan may have miscalculated and will have Istanbul election during a bad time politically.
Excerpt from article on CAATSA sanctions. americanprogress.org/issues/securit…

2. "If Turkey purchases the S-400, it could also face sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). The law allows for sanctions on any individual who engages in significant transactions with the Russian defense or intelligence sectors.

3. Among many damaging provisions, the CAATSA sanctions include the potential denial of licenses to import U.S. goods or technology under the Arms Export Control Act—which governs almost all U.S. defense sales to and military interactions with foreign governments.

4. In other words, the law allows the United States to completely cut off governments from American defense technology and equipment if those governments buy significant military material from Russia."

5. What I need to look at is whether the CAATSA trigger would stop sales of spare parts and ordinance for Turkey's F-16s. I think Erdogan may ground his own air force. Here is the link to @USTreasury CAATSA website. treasury.gov/resource-cente…

6. Looks like Trump could issue waiver but must certify stuff that might be politically difficult. It would certainly be viewed as doing Russian intelligence a favor. In light of a growing call for impeachment might be awkward for @realDonaldTrump. @SenateGOP @LindseyGrahamSC

7. To be honest, I'd say give Erdogan what he wants if he gets out of northern Syria. Not just Afrin. Everywhere. Party's over for the Jihadists. And for the Turkish Airforce, if Erdogan receives the S-400 without a deal.