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1. Getting a number of questions about USDA planting progress numbers. So, going to provide some info on how the numbers are put together in this thread.
2. First key point on USDA Crop Progress reporting system. It is not based on a random sample of farmers or field observations. It is based on information reported by a panel of crop observers that is recruited at the beginning of each season
3. The panel of USDA crop observers consists of about 3,600 people, roughly one for every county in the US that has significant crop production. So, the coverage of crops in the US geographically is close to 100%.
4. USDA does not release information on the occupation of the 3,600 crop observers. My understanding is that this used to be mainly county ag extension agents, but with budget cuts, lots of FSA staff have replaced ag agents in the panel.
5. My understanding is also that turnover in the 3,600 crop observers is very slow over time. Makes sense as the USDA would not want to manage a high turnover process. That would be costly.
6. It is also important to understand that very few full-time farmers are represented in the panel of 3,600 crop observers. Lots of remaining ag agents and some FSA staff either farm part-time themselves as part of a farm family operation. Selected to be informed.
7. I like to think of the information reported as part of the USDA Crop Progress system as a routinized form of "crowdsourcing." This is why the information tends to be valuable in my opinion.
8. Last comment. Since the Crop Progress data are generated by a non-random panel of 3,600 observers, USDA does not report any information on sampling errors for the data. That's because the surveys are not generated by random sampling. It is what it is.
