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Scott Irwin
@ScottIrwinUI
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1. One more thread today. I want to provide some historical perspective on the magnitude of the supply shock in corn that the market is currently trying to absorb.
2. Went back and looked at historical changes in total US corn production YOY from 1990-2018. Computed % YOY changes for each year. I then multiplied the % changes for each year by 2018 production in bushels. That way changes are normalized for growing production over time.
3. Chart shows Top 5 largest "normalized" changes in corn production over 1990--2018 and three scenarios for 2019. All of the 2019 scenarios assume a national average yield of 170bpa. Given these assumptions, is 2019 looking like a "historic" production decline?
4. Yes, we are looking at one of the larger historic YOY US corn production declines under each of the scenarios considered for 2019. 5M acre loss comparable to 2005. 10M acre loss similar to 2012. 15M acre loss in top 3.
5. The chart also shows even under a 15M acre loss we have a long ways to go to equal the two worst production declines (normalized) in 1995 and 1993. Those were truly mammoth declines. It would take some further substantial declines in corn yield in 2019 to get there.
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Scott Irwin
@ScottIrwinUI
1. Got a question on crop insurance coverage. Good to think about that more carefully. Fortunately, GS (as usual) has a great #FDD on exactly this for IL. Sure the data is out there for other states. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2019/01/revenu…
2. Table from Gary's article shows crop insurance coverage for corn in IL for 2018. If I added up the numbers right, about 87% of corn acres had some kind of crop insurance coverage in 2018.
2. Need to subtract out the products that do not have prevent plant (PP). These are the five options furthest to the right as I understand it. These options total 4%. Which means that 83% of IL corn acres in 2018 had PP as an option.
Read 5 tweets
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Scott Irwin
@ScottIrwinUI
1. Getting a number of questions about USDA planting progress numbers. So, going to provide some info on how the numbers are put together in this thread.
2. First key point on USDA Crop Progress reporting system. It is not based on a random sample of farmers or field observations. It is based on information reported by a panel of crop observers that is recruited at the beginning of each season
3. The panel of USDA crop observers consists of about 3,600 people, roughly one for every county in the US that has significant crop production. So, the coverage of crops in the US geographically is close to 100%.
Read 8 tweets
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Scott Irwin
@ScottIrwinUI
2. By June 2 (this Sunday), western Corn Belt states with May 25 prevent plant dates will have lost 7 % points from their yield guarantee. By June 10, it will be 15% points. Ouch. This will start to bite the May 31 prevent plant date states in early June as well.
3. The bottom-line is that it is not hard to find good, sound reasons not to plant corn over June 1-10, particularly given the terribly wet conditions many are experiencing. Is there anything positive?
4. The corn futures market has certainly woken up from its previous slumber and taken notice of the planting problems. Up about a $1 from the low a few weeks ago. But is that enough to incentivize planting corn vs. PP given all the negatives of planting right now?
Read 8 tweets

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