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2. By June 2 (this Sunday), western Corn Belt states with May 25 prevent plant dates will have lost 7 % points from their yield guarantee. By June 10, it will be 15% points. Ouch. This will start to bite the May 31 prevent plant date states in early June as well. 
3. The bottom-line is that it is not hard to find good, sound reasons not to plant corn over June 1-10, particularly given the terribly wet conditions many are experiencing. Is there anything positive?
4. The corn futures market has certainly woken up from its previous slumber and taken notice of the planting problems. Up about a $1 from the low a few weeks ago. But is that enough to incentivize planting corn vs. PP given all the negatives of planting right now?
5. Back to the PP vs. plant corn break-even charts from GS and team I have used several times before. This is the most favorable scenario for planting on June 5 in IL. $4 fall bid + $0.30 MFP2 payment and average corn yield hit. Assumes PP does not get MFP2 payment.
6. Note that even under these favorable assumptions that incentives are sufficient to plant corn only if you have nitrogen and herbicide already applied.
7. Here I assume that everyone gets some version of the MFP 2 payment (my expectation), but still projecting average yield hit for June 5 planting. Only a minority of corn acres purchased from PP.
8. So, what do I think all this means right now? I don't think new crop futures prices are high enough yet to do the job if the market wants to buy millions and millions of corn acres out of PP. Probably need cash bids somewhere between $4.50 - $5.00. to really make it work.
9. My current position is that we are going to likely have 10-15 million acres of PP for corn. While I know that is a huge number, remember that is only a third to a half of the 31 million acres of corn that I project will be left to plant on June 2.
