Profile picture
Garry()
@garrytan
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Overfitting is "the production of an analysis that corresponds too closely or exactly to a particular set of data, and may therefore fail to fit additional data or predict future observations reliably."

The green line is overfit. Aim for the black line.
You should study startup history, but you should not anchor so closely to today’s heroes and hotshot 🦄 successes that you turn off your brain and blindly overfit.

A cargo cult may produce wooden planes, but these will neither fly, nor magically materialize the gifts desired.
Walk your own line, follow your own truth, write your own story.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Garry()
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @garrytan see all

Profile picture
Garry()
@garrytan
Can $AMZN make money? Bezos says yes, they have profitable lines that subsidize reinvestment

The frame of Wall Street is short term

The frame of true reinvestment is long term

The latter is rare. Most just do buybacks because they are out of ideas or can’t hire/manage/ship
A lot of gems in this interview with @hblodget from 2014

My favorite is how you shouldn’t market a rock concert to people who want to go to the ballet 😂
Hedge funds/equity managers have short term quarterly goals. But 84% of stocks are held by multi family office, endowments, pensions, sovereign wealth, all of whom typically are long term oriented (20+ year horizon)

Incentive mismatch on Wall Street

nytimes.com/2018/02/08/bus…
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Garry()
@garrytan
Scene—

Man who saw the reactor core on fire: There is no core! It exploded, the core exploded!

Dyatlov: He’s in shock. Get him out of here

Witness 2: The lid is off. The stack is burning. I saw it.

Dyatlov: You’re confused.

Bad management kills. aier.org/article/banali…
Total domination does not allow for free initiative… for any activity that is not entirely predictable. [It] replaces all first-rate talents… with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.

—Arendt
Chernobyl is a case study in life and death situations in orgs.

As technicians doomed the reactor to meltdown at the behest of a paper pushing middle manager, they mutter to themselves “We did everything right.”

Tyrannical power
Ignorance
Blind order following
Denial
Coverup
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Garry()
@garrytan
Peter Thiel grilling Eric Schmidt (2012)

🏭 Google isn’t a tech co anymore
🏦 It’s a tech holding co with $50B in cash and no ideas
🚀 Accelerating tech world + 0% interest = tech yields large multiples
🛍 $AMZN the only megatech giant reinvesting

Today? $GOOG has >$115B cash
Hat tip @real_vijay super interesting

In Schmidt’s defense he cited not being able to hire enough good people and falls back to typical tropes about education.

This only reinforces how obvious it is that new credentials w/ proverse selection must exist

Google is insanely dominant and a modern marvel in the world

The more provocative and useful conversation is how they really could be even many times bigger and more powerful, but are clearly held back by their own real internal limitations to productive capital reinvestment
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
𝘾𝙝𝙤𝙥𝙊𝙈𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙘
@Chop0Matic
I've done a lot of yacking about this in another thread, but this topic deserves a simplified thread of its own.

By all accounts, the only examination of the "hacked" DNC gear to date was done by CrowdStrike, the DNC's private contractor. Not the FBI. Not *any* govt agency.
Let that digest: Not only did FedGov take the word of a private, DNC-hired contractor for the purposes of levying criminal charges; they used it to formally accuse a nuclear-powered adversarial nation. The entire government apparatus endorsed it almost instantly.
(Remember the "17 government agencies" agreeing Russia was the culprit? That was all based on the CrowdStrike report.)

As if it isn't bizarre enough to launch such grave actions based on the conclusion of *any* third-party vendor, CrowdStrike isn't just any vendor.
Read 13 tweets
Profile picture
theavalondaily
@theavalondaily
#ANALYSIS Much has been said about young people running for various offices across the country - Ready Or Not?

While a host of them are simply making up the numbers, 3 have stood out remarkably and could win a seat each in the National Assembly. @BankyW @GRVlagos @RinsolaAbiola
We therefore will do a brief analysis of their chances tomorrow as they head to the polls.
@GRVlagos is a 35 year old Architect who ran for Ikeja local government chairmanship two years ago and lost. He is running for a seat in the Senate in the Largest senatorial district in Nigeria #Lagoswest on the platform of @OfficialPDPNig .
Read 20 tweets
Profile picture
zetaraffix in Amsterdam
@zetaraffix
#observations after @YoastCon
1/6
 The ordeal that brought forth my #renaissance climaxed almost exactly 10 yrs ago (late Jan 2009). Reclaiming myself (=healing) took about 8 years. Full destruction was necessary for rebirth. Once healed, I began rebuilding: myself ...
2/6
 ... my self esteem, my business, my brand.
Because of how life is, I basically had to do this on my own, with no true financial support from a partner or a family.
I was, though, emotionally and affectionately supported by a small crew of friends ...
3/6
 In this process, I encountered and fell in love with the #WordPress #Community at what I discover over and over having been a magical nexus: #WCEU2016 in Vienna.
A relationship that gets rocky at times (as most do) but that also manages to always offer inspiration ...
Read 7 tweets
Profile picture
Matthew Willemsen
@mwill_crypto
0/ 'Twas all happening on Wednesday in the world of #crypto/#blockchain! Below, I've put together a 25-part thread featuring all the best happenings in the space from the past day or so. Let's do this!
1a/ ⚖️ @MakerDAO [ $MKR / $DAI ] announced the MakerDAO Foundation underwent a major restructuring. Why? To "provide stronger support to help the Dai Credit system navigate an increasingly complex and ever-changing regulatory and competitive landscape." medium.com/makerdao/intro…
1b/ Ⓜ️ All Maker-related entities are part of the Maker Ecosystem Growth Group, a conglomerate of subsidiaries housed under the Cayman Islands-domiciled Maker Ecosystem Growth Foundation. It's temporary and "will dissolve once MakerDAO has achieved its decentralization goals."
Read 36 tweets
Profile picture
The Columbia Bugle 🇺🇸
@ColumbiaBugle
#Analysis: Ending #BirthrightCitizenship for the children of illegal immigrants and birth tourists has long been the crown jewel of pro-sovereignty immigration reformers. It's about interpreting the #14Amendment of the #Constitution correctly. Thread.
First, to quote the great Ann Coulter, it's laughable to think that any Founder, Framer or Amender of the Constitution intended for American citizenship to be the prize in a game of Red Rover with the Border Patrol. We're a nation of laws, after all.
Second, #14Amendment was one of three emancipation-related amendments to the #Constitution, designed to grant citizenship to former slaves and their children. The congressional record shows nobody believed 600,000 Americans died to give Congress the chance to open the borders.
Read 5 tweets
Profile picture
Cyrus Toulabi
@CyrusToulabi
#OBSERVATIONS: A few thoughts in reflecting on the Trump legal team letter that argues the President is above the law.

1. TRUMP'S LAWYERS BASICALLY CONCEDE HE OBSTRUCTED JUSTICE.

They aren't saying he didn't obstruct. They're saying because he's the President, it's not a crime.
2. TRUMP'S TEAM LEAKED THE LETTER, DESPITE TRUMP ACCUSING MUELLER'S TEAM OF THE LEAK.

Trump tweeted this week that he doesn’t have time to focus on the Russia investigation b/c he's so busy president-ing...

WHICH IS THE SAME ARGUMENT MADE IN THE LETTER.

Here's Trump accusing Mueller's team of leaking...

We know the Special Counsel doesn't leak.

It's NOT A COINCIDENCE that the claims in the letter mirror Trump's tweets this week. Once again, just like the #49Questions by Sekulow, it's from Trump's side.
Read 7 tweets

Trending hashtags

#discrimination #license #cryptocurrency #delusion #SelectCommittee #extreme #anomaly #gearbox #policy #prohibit #membership #alcohol #ECJ #healthy #inspirelegal #tech #FAIL #Bitcoin #QuantResearch #WCEU2016 #consumers #misogyny #inspired #oranges #Community
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!