Thread by @busbyj2

Thrust of NSC/Happer comments on Schoonover testimony is that there have been more extreme climate changes in human history and the current moment isn't unusual. Except, we ain't done yet. It's just getting started, and it's already bad.

NSC/Happer comments on the science section are just climate denialist talking points. Climate scientists like @KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin can easily debunk. But they shouldn't have to because it's already been written in the National Climate Assessment!

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin You can tell that NSC comments are from Happer because he's touting the benefits of carbon dioxide. Dumbest damn timeline on planet earth. Fighting over first premises when the real issue is what we should do. Such a waste of time.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Happer claims that coral reefs are fine. Maybe on earth2 that's true but not here.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Comments from Happer remind me of those emails from retired engineers I get periodically on my climate pieces. So fundamentally wrong and yet so sure they are right. Auto-didacts on climate science who think they have figured it out themselves while all the scientists are wrong.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin I'm trying to imagine Happer's comments on the earth being round. "The world looks flat, the bottoms of clouds are flat, the movement of the sun; these are all examples of your senses telling you that we do not live on a spherical heliocentric world." - Actual flat earth website

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Schoonover testimony reads very much like 2008 NIA and subsequent IC reports on climate change, mostly likely because he's been involved in writing them. I've met Schoonover before and consummate professional.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Actually scientists are v confident global temperatures are going to increase in coming decades so maybe Happer should stop listening to Myron Ebell and other hacks for their scientific information.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Reading Figure 4 which has a nuanced take on potential social impacts of climate change and Happer comment in margin. Who the f- is this goon proclaiming benefits of carbon dioxide?

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin I mean you can't even have a rational discussion with Happer. He's so off the path of normal professional discussion on this topic, and he's asserting White House authority. He's should be enjoying his retirement and shouting at the TV.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Happer suggests that there won't be much if any climate change in the tropics.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Happer might want to read the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report but would probably make some attack on peer-reviewed science and so then what?

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin I mean every piece of Schoonover's written testimony is a moment for Happer to press his alternative facts. Here, he presses for coal as the solution to Africa's energy access issues and then lambastes eco-imperialism.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin While energy access is a real issue, new coal plants, like the one China is seeking to build in Kenya, will be very destructive to important heritage sites. India and China's present air pollution problems could be Africa's future. bbc.com/news/uk-485030…

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Schoonover's testimony reads like a careful summary of the academic and policy literature on climate & security, with a sober take on what we know, what the impacts might be, and where there might be surprise. Happer's comments are anything but that.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Conclusion underscores difference between Schoonover's professional analysis and the obscene hackery of Happer, as if CO2 is some magic elixir that delivered prosperity to the developing world in the 20th century and will forevermore, not a byproduct of industrial activity.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Starting from the top, let's pretend Happer never happened and focus on Schoonover's comments. How should we actually think about climate and security?

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Schoonover sensibly focuses on the compound risks of climate along with other factors.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin The paper helpfully defines national security impacts, something other papers don't do. In my own work, I focus on severity (and sometimes the speed) of such impacts. This is pretty expansive but at least a definition.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Schoonover also reproduces a diagram adapted from a National Research Council study for how to connect the physical consequences of climate change to security outcomes.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin The paper then reviews basic climate science. This is the section Happer wanted eliminated because, well, Happer is a nut job. Here is the graphic that explains how 18 of last 20 years have been hottest years on record. Hard to believe that those guys at NASA made all this up.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Schoonover then summarizes projections of future climate change from the IPCC, including expectations of increasing average surface temperatures in coming decades. I guess all those scientific studies should be discounted because Happer knows better.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin The paper then helpfully reviews other impacts that might happen for which there is less scientific certainty but whose outcomes could be catastrophic. Happer wanted to axe all this stuff. Can't happen if we don't think about it!

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Schoonover tries to put the science together with potential social impacts. This won't be global but could be regional and isn't exhaustive but helps policy folks connect physical impacts to social impacts on infrastructure, health, agriculture, etc.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin The subsequent section then walk through these impacts, where societies might have the least coping capacity... fragile states in Sub-Sahara Africa, the Middle East, Central and Southeast Asia, what Buhaug and coauthors once called the "shatter belt."

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin This isn't in the Schoonover paper but when I read about climate change and security, I think back to the Buhaug et al paper for the World Bank on climate and armed conflict which depicted conflict-riven states in the mid 2000s.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin The paper walks through impacts on economies, food security, health and then makes the case that this could relevant to the United States.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin From there, Schoonover turns to a variety of other impacts that could lead to heightened competition for natural resources (over water, fisheries, and arable land).

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Another consequence is potential migration. The paper notes that climate impacts are yet another reason why some people might leave their countries of origin. Island nations in the South Pacific will experience this more acutely given the existential threat from climate change.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Other impacts include more humanitarian emergencies, new competition over the Arctic, and adverse effects on militaries. Anybody doubt we should be thinking about these problems? Oh yeah, the retired physicist know-it-all (or maybe not).

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin The paper helpful then says we should be worried about more severe climate surprises given that greenhouse gas concentrations are now higher than they have been for possibly 66 million years and at least for 800,000 years.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin Finally, the paper closes and says these impacts aren't foreordained since a lot depends on what humans do to adapt and reduce emissions. But, there are many reasons to think a lot of the impacts will be bad, potentially catastrophic.

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin So, I read the Schoonover paper and think that he's ably written up what we know, pulled no punches, and didn't exaggerate. Happer, on the other hand...Enough about him. Let's hope he's a footnote soon enough. That's all I got folks. /END

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin If you made it this far in the thread, you might be wondering the provenance. @LFFriedman from @nytimes got hold of the document and wrote the story here. nytimes.com/2019/06/08/cli…

@KHayhoe @MichaelEMann @bobkopp @ClimateOfGavin @LFFriedman @nytimes Original document here. int.nyt.com/data/documenth…