Thread by @TennantReed

Yesterday I spoke to @abcnews The Business on climate change for about 15 minutes, but for whatever reason (I’m a wordy bore?) they only used about 10 seconds of me saying members don’t support shutting industries overnight. TV is TV, but Twitter has room for more. So!

Global emissions need to fall to zero or below to stabilize the climate: by ~2050 for <1.5C, ~2070 for <2C, later for still higher temps. Whatever the date, that’s a big transition. It has huge implications for many sectors, especially in Australia.

Some people and industries can already see their way through that transition, in the broad if not in every detail. Electricity is well advanced and can see that variable renewables are (at least) a huge part of their future.

Other people and sectors do not yet see that pathway. Plenty are keen to fix this, but many see uncertainty or fear that action on climate equals shutdown. There is very little support for the latter.

Australia has had a lot of debate about medium term point targets for emissions. We have not grappled much with long term transition. Nationally we have an embryonic plan to 2030 that is as much about accounting as new effort. Beyond - nothing yet.

It is urgent that we start developing long term transition plans for net zero, fleshing out options and needs for all sectors. Industry, community, workers, all levels of government should get involved. Concerns have got to be answered.

The UK and Japan are putting forward long term plans, and many others will follow. They’ll differ in context, detail and (probably) quality. Australia has committed to develop a long term strategy under Paris, and if done seriously this could be the vehicle for the work we need.

One of the issues to think about is resources exports. Debate focuses on Adani’s proposed 10mt/yr of coal export to India, but Australia sells ~370mt/yr. World demand for all this is likely to decline over time due to climate action and tech change.

The decline could be very large and relatively rapid (eg down 85% 2050 in IPCC SR1.5 ensemble). So while regional biz largely welcomes new project investment, we need other opportunities and hedges too. Hydrogen is an example - a world where coal declines likely has big H2 market

Decisions in (eg) India, China and Japan will determine those countries’ emissions, and also impact Australia’s markets. We need to sort out our emissions and be ready for winds of change from elsewhere.

Worthwhile steps for the 🇦🇺 Govt include:
* long term emissions strategy (informing hydrogen and EV strategies also in development)
* another go at long term emissions policy for electricity; NEG EO still widely supported, but other options too

* evolve Safeguard Mechanism to encourage emissions reductions while maintaining competitiveness (could be a path for electricity too)
* negotiate for access to quality international units to supplement domestic efforts

Australia’s emissions targets will have to deepen over time to achieve our larger goals. Good policy can help, and preferably national policy that can avoid a messy hodgepodge of state policies. But something beats nothing.

Anyway! Some of that was in the interview, more of it was in my talking points of asked, and now it’s all threaded (if not numbered). Hopefully it adds some dimension to my brief talking head appearance.