Thread by @nick_gutteridge

Brussels is urging Boris to stay away for the first few months of his premiership, until after Tory party conference ending Oct 2. They fear if he arrives in July threatening to tear everything up he'll put relations into an unrecoverable downward spiral. thesun.co.uk/news/9298758/b…

The EU has been watching the leadership race with growing unease at the promises being made by candidates - especially Boris who they've already factored in as the next PM. 'If you look at the race you can’t ignore that the probability of no deal is going up', says one official.

But they don't believe his central promise to leave on Oct 31 deal or no deal, for the simple reason they reckon he doesn't want to risk becoming Britain's shortest-lived PM ever. Instead they're braced for a renegotiation attempt that will almost certainly require another delay.

As they see it, Boris is being dealt the same hand as May and will be just as paralysed by it. Going for a second referendum, General Election, revocation or No Deal will 'mean the end' of his premiership within months. So more talks is the only avenue for survival open to him.

Barnier's team has been put on stand-by for July, but diplomats are urging Boris not to come here where he'll be met with a firm line based on the negotiating mandate. Instead they say he should visit capitals - Dublin, Paris and Berlin - to explore any kind of wiggle room in it.

There is scope for more assurances on the temporary nature of the backstop if he can prove they'll get the deal through parliament. An EU official says: 'This can be explored. It never went further with May because she was never able to demonstrate that she had a majority.'

This will not include a time-limit but may entail timetabling on A) how the backstop can be avoided in the first place, and B) if it is ever deployed how it can be phased out. Officials/diplomats here are pessimistic what this will deliver. 'The numbers are what the numbers are.'

Big problem is how can tech ever replace need for a Customs Union to ensure a frictionless/infrastructure free border? Fundamentally EU still doesn't think it can. So most expect backstop to evolve into 'bespoke' CU. They recognise an economy size of UK will need a say on deals.

One EU source asks: 'What will be the game changer that suddenly we'd be willing to offer guarantees we've not yet tried?' But they also hold out hope for Boris' skills as a salesman. Throughout this process Brussels has been perplexed by May's inability to sell her victories.

They put it: 'If he can carry this over the line in the coming 2-6 months he'll have saved the Tory party and that will be a big incentive. If he manages that then it becomes a piece of cake because Farage will never win in a contest which is about a Customs Union or EEA or FTA.'

But if Boris fails? EU insists 'there's no such thing' as managed No Deal & UK faces talks with angry capitals wielding vetoes: 'There's no quick fix, you’re off into the abyss. Member States will say they should honour the financial commitments 1st. That’s a nightmare scenario.'

Hence, we end up at calculation of another delay. But patience across EU is wearing thin. One official says: 'The limits here are close to exhaustion for a long extension so I think it'd be rather a short one.' France, as ever, will play a key role in arguing UK should just go.

An EU diplomat sums up Paris' thinking: 'Macron is very keen to have the illusion of another extension shattered at [next week's] summit, and he might have more backing than last time. His basic strategy is it doesn't matter how the Brits leave as long as they do leave soon.'

Macron may use next week's gathering to ram that point home and fire a bit of a warning shot to Boris over his rhetoric on the divorce bill etc. But EU officials/diplomats admit they don't really know what to expect from him as PM because they're unsure what he actually believes.

Either way, Brussels & EU capitals are going to emerge from their two-month 'Brexit break' next week and start plotting their course for how to deal with PM Johnson. Tory conference and October 17-18 summit here in Brussels will be two crucial moments. A bumpy road ahead. ENDS.