Thread by @nick_gutteridge

1/ Was instructive listening to @WeyandSabine - who will be critical in negotiating a UK-EU trade deal - speak at @gmfus Brussels Forum yesterday. She gave a good indication of how she'll approach the job as EU trade chief, and what next UK Govt will be facing across the table.

2/ Trade isn't just trade, it's more political than ever: 'We have an increasing linkage between the geopolitical and economic. We're talking about trade tensions, we're looking at a rivalry for global leadership in technology and security carried out by means of trade policy.'

3/ This development 'is very difficult for EU because European integration has rested on separation between the geopolitical and economic.' It must 'fashion our response' by changing: 'We need to integrate much more our diplomatic tools and our external economic relations tools.'

4/ This means EU economic policy becomes more about 'the external projection of the Internal Market in all its dimensions'. Next Commission will have 'to integrate what are we doing externally, in regulatory areas, in financial services, we need to look at our sanctions policy.'

5/ Weyand wants the EU to be much more 'assertive' in using its clout globally 'to define what is the system in which we want to live'. Her approach: 'It's neither being conciliatory nor combative but assertive and I think as the EU we cannot be a lamb in a world of carnivores.'

6/ Climate is one area she cites as a key priority for the next Commission, especially upholding the Paris Agreement. Data standards, too: 'The EU approach with the GDPR is actually getting some traction which is not surprising given it's applied in a market of 500m people.'

7/ This ties in with a coded message to the UK about its Global Britain aspirations: 'What is quite clear is that size matters in trade negotiations, so one should not have illusions about what you can do as an individual country in the world of today.'

8/ On post-Brexit ties she was guarded but said there's a 'strong interest' in avoiding No Deal: 'We will remain aligned on outlook on the world. EU and UK will be partners for a rules-based international trading system and we have every interest in getting off to a good start.'

9/ In the EU's eyes, naturally, 'No Deal would not be a good start to building that future constructive relationship'. But she is clear where the blame for Britain leaving without a deal would lie: 'The choice would be the UK's and we're ready to engage.'

10/ In conclusion, Weyand wants an EU that uses its market size to proactively project its values, interests and regulatory standards around the world. In trade talks with the UK it will work hard to keep us as close as possible on all three, even as part of a 'Canada Plus' deal.

11/ The first is easy, as the EU and UK fundamentally share the same values. The second will be largely smooth as in the majority of areas the two parties' global interests strongly align. The third, however, is going to the the big battle of the next phase whenever we get there.