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Nearly 60% of Americans regard Trump as a uniquely untrustworthy president. courthousenews.com/wp-content/upl… Trump cannot credibly function as a war leader, and those urging him toward hawkish responses to Iranian provocation need to keep this disability in mind.
After Iran fired on shipping in Gulf in 1987, the Reagan administration reflagged tankers as US merchant vessels and sent warships to escort tankers. When Iran fired, the warships fired back. Congress then Democratic majority, but it backed the Reagan administration's actions
That history will not be repeated in 2019. Trump won't have support of Congress if he acts vs Iran. He won't have trust of public. If he scores instant, cost-free success - lack of support / trust won't matter. But if he runs into trouble, lack of support/trust will matter
When Reagan ordered the reflagging in June 1987, his support stood at near-record low of ... 48%. news.gallup.com/poll/11887/ron… Reagan's floor is Trump's ceiling. As tension escalated in Gulf over later 1987 early 1988, Reagan recovered to majority support, 53%.
On July 9, 1987, Congress voted on a motion to Rep. Charles Bennett of Florida to disapprove Reagan policy allowing tankers in Gulf to fly US flag. In a D-majority House, Bennett motion was defeated 283-126. Reagan had congressional authorization to proceed. Trump won't.
I wrote more here about hazards of a Trump action vs Iran theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
... motion BY Rep. Charles Bennett of Florida ...
