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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Stewart aced that weakness question by saying he had lots of them... as you could see from the facial expressions in the cutaways of the other candidates #C4debate
In case anyone is wondering - here is the currently planned tariff rate for all cheese including cheddar under No Deal apply from Nov 1st without a deal - €24.9 per 100kg - currently zero from EU obviously... (NB its calculated in euros) #c4debate 🧀 gov.uk/government/pub…
Though I suspect @RoryStewartUK was making point about No Deal tariffs facing U.K. Farmers exporting cheddar to the EU... in which case No Deal WTO MFN tariff would be exactly what we currently apply as members of EU to third countries - a whopping €188.20 per 100kg vs zero now
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Carney: Bank working to ensure financial system works whatever form Brexit takes...

But financial stability is not market stability, in no deal no transition Brexit... preparations cannot eliminate fundamental changes... businesses expect output and employment to fall in No Deal
Carney says his former colleague the Trump official Gary Cohn was “wrong” to tell @BBCJonSopel that No Deal is preferable to continued uncertainty - said its always better to get a deal with a transition
I ask Carney if Downing St should rely on a massive monetary stimulus from the Bank of England in event of No Deal: “it depends” he replies - points to inflationary impact of tariffs and sterling falls.

Says No Deal, uniquely will be simultaneously both a demand & a supply shock
Read 8 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Bank keeps monetary policy on hold as it downgrades growth a bit, upgrades inflation a bit. Wait and see what politics comes up with as regards No Deal, which the Bank goes out of its way to avoid forecasting, even as the markets rank it increasingly likely.
The Bank now anticipates economy stalled in Q2 at 0 - that’s down from May of +0.2%. And 0.3% in Q3. That would be the weakest 6 month stretch since 2009, though avoid recession...
Some of the Q2/Q3 weakness is down to volatile Brexit related one offs - stockpiling reversing, and car factory shutdowns, but not all. Bank also sees bigger hit to business investment as Brexit uncertainty seen as bigger and lasting longer by businesses
Read 6 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
US Federal Reserve cuts 0.25%, cites “global developments” and muted inflation for rate cut...
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly cites “trade policy uncertainty” as a factor in this first rate cut in a decade... - a win win for President Trump there.
NB Sterling pretty much recovered yesterday’s losses on forex markets today, esp vs euro, but dollar surge after Fed decision has wiped that out vs dollar
Read 6 tweets

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Finally, over a month after some of us pointed it out (in my case on the deal with Switzerland), this is getting proper attention. Those rolled over free trade agreements are not what @LiamFox and @tradegovuk are claiming. Thanks @BenChu_ and @uk_tpo
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Let's hope they take note now. There's far too much false information about Brexit. What's needed is policies based on facts.

theguardian.com/business/2019/…
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tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/12/uk-…
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