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Bank keeps monetary policy on hold as it downgrades growth a bit, upgrades inflation a bit. Wait and see what politics comes up with as regards No Deal, which the Bank goes out of its way to avoid forecasting, even as the markets rank it increasingly likely.
The Bank now anticipates economy stalled in Q2 at 0 - that’s down from May of +0.2%. And 0.3% in Q3. That would be the weakest 6 month stretch since 2009, though avoid recession...
Some of the Q2/Q3 weakness is down to volatile Brexit related one offs - stockpiling reversing, and car factory shutdowns, but not all. Bank also sees bigger hit to business investment as Brexit uncertainty seen as bigger and lasting longer by businesses
Global growth/ trade tensions also a factor in softer growth outlook. ...
But Bank acknowledges inconsistency in its forecast - Bank assumes in macroeconomic terms a smooth Brexit, but currency and gilt markets are assuming 40ish per cent chance of No Deal. Foggy.
But Bank acknowledges inconsistency in its forecast - Bank assumes in macroeconomic terms a smooth Brexit, but currency and gilt markets are assuming 40ish per cent chance of No Deal. Foggy.
Here we go - Carney “marked depreciation of sterling” following “increase in perceived likelihood of a no Deal Brexit” 
... “Brexit developments making UK GDP more volatile” - leading to “marked weakness” in business investment...
But households doing better amid record employment and pay growth, not a debt fuelled issue, says Carney...
But households doing better amid record employment and pay growth, not a debt fuelled issue, says Carney...
