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1. THREAD about the @DNC @NBCNews primary debate selection from last week.
The candidates were “randomly selected” in a closed meeting at 30 Rock. Four of the top five polling candidates ended up in the same group: @JoeBiden, @BernieSanders, @PeteButtigieg, and @KamalaHarris.
The candidates were “randomly selected” in a closed meeting at 30 Rock. Four of the top five polling candidates ended up in the same group: @JoeBiden, @BernieSanders, @PeteButtigieg, and @KamalaHarris.
3. The description of the boxes and the process itself is different in @BuzzFeed and the @nytimes. The @washingtonpost says the names were written out on note cards vs. paper.
4. The @AP says that representatives for all 20 candidates were present. Other sources say that each campaign was INVITED to send a representative, but make no mention of actual attendees.
5. Curiously, the @washingtonpost, @nytimes, and @CNN all quoted anonymous sources when describing the drawing. I can’t understand why they were not able to get a single on record source if the event was attended by someone from each campaign.
6. Let’s take a look at the math. What are odds that four of the top five candidates end up in the same group? There were a total of 7 candidates polling above 2% so randomly splitting them into two groups meant there were 35 possible combinations. Here they are all listed out.
7. The ones highlighted in green represent all of the possibilities where four of the top five candidates by polling were selected into one group. This puts the odds at 5 in 35 or around 14%.
8. I should not assume malicious intent, but I do not trust the @DNC at all. This seems like the best possible outcome they could have hoped for if their goal is to suppress @TulsiGabbard on the national stage. Many people probably will not tune in at all on the first night.
9. Since Tulsi had a 50/50 chance of being included in either group, that puts the odds of four of the top five candidates being in one group AND Tulsi not being in that group at 7%.
10. It is entirely possible that everything occurred exactly as they said it did, and they just got lucky, but as we saw in 2016, the @DNC does not like to leave anything to chance when it comes to their nomination process.
11. I also want to add that many sources pointed out how having Biden and Bernie the same night as Mayor Pete will allow Mayor Pete to stand out as a younger candidate. Another lucky coincidence!
12. I know that @TulsiGabbard will shine no matter who she is going up against so I only hope that enough people watch the first night that the odds flip in her favor for the next round of debates.
