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So excited about updating my infographic that I woke up early.
Not excited enough to do it last night, though
Any way, some important points here
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@UKandEU @UniSurreyNews @SurreyPolitics
Not excited enough to do it last night, though
Any way, some important points here
1/
@UKandEU @UniSurreyNews @SurreyPolitics
The MP voting is drifting to a less-extreme hardening of Brexit policy, as Raab exits the race, to join colleagues with the most radical positions. Stewart's improvement also pulls the weighted mean down
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However, the bigger development is the rising uncertainty on Johnson's position on extension. On the basis of last night's debate, I've moved him to a question mark: if that had been factored into the weighted mean, we'd be at 1.30 (ie a much bigger drop)
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This is going to be the key thing for the remaining rounds: it will be Johnson's evolving position that will matter more than opponents dropping out
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Overall, we appear to be moving to an outcome that reaffirms that the situation wasn't about May, but the structural situation. Expect a change of style, not substance
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