Thread by @20committee

I like @BulwarkOnline and I respect what they're trying to do, mission-wise. But this piece by @Tracinski requires a brief response. My comments are not solely critical. There's good here. He's right to point out that everything is not about Bolton. /1

thebulwark.com/mustached-man-…

Moreover, @Tracinski is right to call out some Left and Right attacks on Bolton, many of which are disingenuous and evasive, plus economical with #facts. Trump's Iran policy is complex and cannot be explained solely by Bolton's odd relationship with the MEK or Sheldon Adelson. /2

However, the article misses a key point.

It states, "nobody was actually talking about invading Iran. No influential political or foreign policy figure has seriously contemplated it since 1980."

Yes, but also No.

/3

Nobody at CENTCOM wants to execute Operation PERSIAN FREEDOM -- they know how that would go -- but to suggest that nobody's thought about it either dishonest or uninformed.

OPLAN, anyone?

Methinks a visit to CENTCOM might help here... /4

More important, if you don't contemplate end-states and what victory looks like, PLEASE do not start a war.

They're easy to start and tough to stop. This isn't exactly a secret. It's History 101.

Iran is a big country with a lot of strategic depth and tough terrain. /5

What happens if we drop some bombs on Iran and...not much happens. They hit us back, people die, and we're back to square one.

Nobody acquainted with CENTCOM realities thinks a few airstrikes will unravel the mullah regime. It may well do the opposite. /6

My loathing of the clerico-fascist regime in Tehran is long on record. But we need to face strategic realities. If there were easy, low-cost ways to rid the planet of the IRGC and their thugocracy, those would have been executed long ago. Now, there are no good options. /7

The enemy always gets a vote. Trump has backed the mullahs into a corner. We have no diplomatic options to play, as Tehran's comments this week make plain. New sanctions will cause more pain and...then what, exactly?

If Trumpers have a realistic end-state in mind, tell us. /8

Bolton & Co have ALREADY put the regime on death ground, to cite Master Sun. Did they think this would encourage mullah moderation?

All this is strategically stupid. Let's face that. It's not all Bolton's fault, but it's severe #natsec malpractice regardless. Buckle up. /9X