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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
A real, genuine question for the #Brexit nerds (and no sarcastic comments *please*) - what do we think Hunt and Johnson would actually *do* on Brexit?
My best guess for Hunt:

- go to meet Barnier and others in BXL shortly after being elected, to see what he can get
- return to Westminster with little more than the current WA+PD
- see there's no majority for it
- end up asking EU for a delay
Best guess for Johnson:

- go off to BXL making some kind of waffling but bombastic demands, like "alternative arrangements" for NI border
- EU tells him this isn't workable
- returns to London claiming intransigence of the EU
- then heads for No Deal, Commons seeks to stop it...
This by @WJames_Reuters is ace:
reuters.com/article/us-bri…

But what *conclusion* to draw from that... is hard because the statements each has made are contradictory!
Is there some deeper analysis of their positions I have missed somewhere?

I am aware that trying to analyse 💩 is hard...

@anandMenon1 @AllieRenison @usherwood @jonlis1?

/ends
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So I have been wondering... how do we actually work out the impact of the Tory leadership election on #Brexit?

When both of the candidates are so very vague or 🦄 with their statements...
There is a series by @MSmithsonPB about the current odds on who wins - the latest is here:
www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/arch…
That has then gone into a revised V6 of my #BrexitDiagram

Edges up the chances of an election, and edges down No Deal and Brexit with a Deal

The chances are:

General Election - 63%
#PeoplesVote - 4%
No Deal - 18%
Extend Art 50 period - 8%
Brexit with a Deal - 7%
Read 8 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So what is the impact of Johnson's personal difficulties, and stumbling media performances, on likely #Brexit outcomes?

I've tried to work it out in Series 3, V6 of my #BrexitDiagram
This has an 80% chance of Johnson winning, 20% chance for Hunt. This is based on the state of betting as outlined by @MSmithsonPB.

I will adjust that if chances for the candidates change.

I have then tried to work out what each of them would actually *do* once elected.
Outcomes, and trend in comparison to V5 from 13 June
General Election 61% ⬇️
#PeoplesVote 4% ⬇️
No Deal 19% ↔️
Further #Article50 Extension 8% (re-entry)
Brexit with a Deal 8% ⬆️
Read 4 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
I haven't logged into Flickr for some time... and now I am up against the limits on free accounts there.

I do not want to make money from my photos, nor do I want to discuss photos.

But some photos I have taken have been used and seen by thousands - these 2 especially...
The question is what to do?

I need a way to make photos available to others, Creative Commons Licensed, with some pretty large disk allocation (and definitely more than 1000 photos)

What should I do? Pay the $5/month for Flickr Pro? Or is there a better bet?
I could host something on my own server, but then people are not going to find the pics so easily...

I am also not keen on using a Google product for this...

Bright ideas anyone? @kcorrick @martinhaase?

And here's my Flickr: flickr.com/photos/8301581…

/ends
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Adam Wagner
@AdamWagner1
Please please stop killing worshipers 😢

Like many Jews around the world I was at synagogue with my family this morning for the sabbath and end of Passover. Like in Christchurch, Sri Lanka, these poor people were just going about their lives. Please stop this!
Here’s a thread I did at the beginning of Passover. It lasts 8 days and ended today, which is what these poor people would have been celebrating in synagogue
This piece by @Freedland
and @mehdirhasan is excellent and worth revisiting. Personally, as a human rights lawyer (who happens to be Jewish), I am trying to focus now on how to help prevent the intolerance and radicalisation which leads us here theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Read 12 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Options available on #Brexit - thread
To try to help out with understanding I'm going to go for the simplest explanation I can of the options in front of the country re A50, Deals available etc based on my understanding

Here goes
2) briefly to begin with, there are 3 #Brexit options & 2 Article 50 options
Brexit options:
- No deal
- May's deal
- Remain

Article 50
- Revoke A50
- Delay A50

3 routes to Remain
- GE with a Labour Remain ticket
- 2nd Ref with a Remain option
- Revoke A50 via vote in HoP
3) Revoke A50
can be revoked by the UK alone, without agreement of the EU & we go back to the *exact* same deal we have now (rebate, no Euro etc)

However it must be a revoke in "good faith", we revoke because we are staying indefinitely, not as a pause whilst we have a rethink
Read 22 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
1) How much of a threat is the Spain/Gibraltar question to the #Brexit summit on Sunday? This issue has the potential to be either a) huge or b) to disappear in to a puff of smoke
2) Spain feels hoodwinked. Gibraltar is of huge national interest (and hurt pride) for many Spaniards. Many at the very least saw an opportunity with #Brexit to gain considerable influence over the Rock
3) At the beginning of #Brexit negotiations Spain was promised that no decisions could be taken over the future of Gibraltar without consultation with Spain which is why throughout the negotiations process, there have been bilateral Spain-U.K. talks in parallel
Read 14 tweets
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Paul Andrew James Dunne
@Shadician
So we all know the Northern Ireland border is a big issue for #brexit. But what about all the other British territories that don't make the headlines? Let's try to gather them up!

1) The Falklands, where 94% of fishing exports go to the EU single market: independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
2) The Rock of Gibraltar, which voted remain but is firmly British Communities both sides of the border face 'economic disaster' if a deal cannot be reached: chronicle.gi/2018/10/at-un-… Apparently just 'small' issues like the the border and tax yet to be agreed..
3) The Caribbean island of Anguilla relies on free movement: economist.com/britain/2018/0… Its tourism & postal industries depend on EU flights to the French & Dutch halves of neighboring St Martin. Citizens get medical treatment on St Martin. Third of its capital budget came from EU.
Read 8 tweets
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Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
Some #Brexit notes on where it’s at
EU gearing up for Brexit endgame but May will not get a chance to discuss Chequers/future relationship with all other European leaders until a final summit in Nov (or even Dec)
Salzburg summit in 3 weeks - May will address all 28 but with no discussion 
Completely separately Macron is pushing for a full EU28 discussion on future of Europe
thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/m…
Read 30 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. Starting to think the chances of a deal are closer to zero. There isn't enough coherence between the media, politicians, parties and policy wonks. they are all too easily distracted by trivia and Westminster sideshows.

#Brexit thread
2. The facts are that the EU has turned down any cake and eat it proposal on regulation and divergence and I find it is wise to take them at their word when they say no cherrypicking.
3. Loosely, the proposal from May is to leverage the NI solution into a while UK solution - which the EU has already declined. If anyone in government or close to it was paying attention they would have told May that the proposal is a stillborn.
Read 19 tweets

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