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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 4 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
So what is the impact of Johnson's personal difficulties, and stumbling media performances, on likely #Brexit outcomes?

I've tried to work it out in Series 3, V6 of my #BrexitDiagram
This has an 80% chance of Johnson winning, 20% chance for Hunt. This is based on the state of betting as outlined by @MSmithsonPB.

I will adjust that if chances for the candidates change.

I have then tried to work out what each of them would actually *do* once elected.
Outcomes, and trend in comparison to V5 from 13 June
General Election 61% ⬇️
#PeoplesVote 4% ⬇️
No Deal 19% ↔️
Further #Article50 Extension 8% (re-entry)
Brexit with a Deal 8% ⬆️
As ever, high res versions, XML, PNGs, ODS for the calculations on my blog.

Und alles wird in der @vhskoeln ab 19 Uhr mit
@birgit_bujard @santosherrmann @tobifle diskutiert - ein Live Stream wird's auch geben! #BrexitGameOver

/ends
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More from @jonworth see all

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So I have been wondering... how do we actually work out the impact of the Tory leadership election on #Brexit?

When both of the candidates are so very vague or 🦄 with their statements...
There is a series by @MSmithsonPB about the current odds on who wins - the latest is here:
www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/arch…
That has then gone into a revised V6 of my #BrexitDiagram

Edges up the chances of an election, and edges down No Deal and Brexit with a Deal

The chances are:

General Election - 63%
#PeoplesVote - 4%
No Deal - 18%
Extend Art 50 period - 8%
Brexit with a Deal - 7%
Read 8 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
A real, genuine question for the #Brexit nerds (and no sarcastic comments *please*) - what do we think Hunt and Johnson would actually *do* on Brexit?
My best guess for Hunt:

- go to meet Barnier and others in BXL shortly after being elected, to see what he can get
- return to Westminster with little more than the current WA+PD
- see there's no majority for it
- end up asking EU for a delay
Best guess for Johnson:

- go off to BXL making some kind of waffling but bombastic demands, like "alternative arrangements" for NI border
- EU tells him this isn't workable
- returns to London claiming intransigence of the EU
- then heads for No Deal, Commons seeks to stop it...
Read 5 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
I haven't logged into Flickr for some time... and now I am up against the limits on free accounts there.

I do not want to make money from my photos, nor do I want to discuss photos.

But some photos I have taken have been used and seen by thousands - these 2 especially...
The question is what to do?

I need a way to make photos available to others, Creative Commons Licensed, with some pretty large disk allocation (and definitely more than 1000 photos)

What should I do? Pay the $5/month for Flickr Pro? Or is there a better bet?
I could host something on my own server, but then people are not going to find the pics so easily...

I am also not keen on using a Google product for this...

Bright ideas anyone? @kcorrick @martinhaase?

And here's my Flickr: flickr.com/photos/8301581…

/ends
Read 3 tweets

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Karol Cummins
@karolcummins
‼️Boris Johnson is Britain's Donald Trump

– Complete with Breitbart's Bannon and Russia Cover-Up

BORIS JOHNSON
MAIN MEGA THREAD

#Brexit #VoteLeave #BorisJohnson

H/T @paulhanley12
bylinetimes.com/2019/06/12/bor…
Boris Johnson is/was advised by Steve BANNON – Trump’s campaign manager & VP of the notorious, now-shuttered electioneering firm Cambridge Analytica, which he co-founded in 2014 w/ hedge fund billionaire Robert Mercer, who also backed the Breitbart sites.
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📌They have been in contact ever since and the fruits of this friendship have been evident for some time

bylinetimes.com/2019/06/12/bor…
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Prof Tanja Bueltmann 🇪🇺🏳️‍🌈
@cliodiaspora
So @ukhomeoffice is now routinely checking whether experts applying to sit on advisory boards etc have tweeted critically about #Brexit or #Windrush. I guess that rules me out from any future work. .... Seriously: this is truly shocking and a very worrying development. 1/
Surely critical engagement is exactly what advisory and expert roles are about! In any case what has been revealed here is especially worrying as this is routinely done also to experts who work in completely unrelated fields! The only explanation I can come up with is that 2/
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Cornelia
@PaladinCornelia
I've read parts of the Mueller report, but I've not read the entire document from start to finish. I'm going to do that now and will comment as I go along. I expect this will take me days to accomplish since I'll have to fit it in with my home & work responsibilities.

<THREAD>
1) If you'd like to follow along. This is the document I will be reading. It's a searchable PDF. scribd.com/document/40672…
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a) Russia interfered with our 2016 elections
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c) Russia acted to disparage Hillary Clinton
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
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David Ricardo García
@davidricardogg
#Series ¡Me gustó la música de #Versailles! He terminado las dos primeras temporadas de esta ambiciosa serie de #ficciónhistórica disponible en @NetflixLAT, y ya espero la tercera y última temporada. En este hilo compartiré una apreciación personal del #Score y del #Soundtrack.
En primer lugar va la intro, es tan poderosa, que no usé en ningún episodio la opción de saltar intro o adelantarla. Es un tema compuesto por los franceses @M83 llamado #Outro. Se puede escuchar en @Spotify - @SpotifyColombia :

open.spotify.com/track/2QVmiA93…
O si prefieren en @YouTube.

Read 22 tweets
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Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
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