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tony nog #FBPE @tony_nog
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1) Options available on #Brexit - thread
To try to help out with understanding I'm going to go for the simplest explanation I can of the options in front of the country re A50, Deals available etc based on my understanding

Here goes
2) briefly to begin with, there are 3 #Brexit options & 2 Article 50 options
Brexit options:
- No deal
- May's deal
- Remain

Article 50
- Revoke A50
- Delay A50

3 routes to Remain
- GE with a Labour Remain ticket
- 2nd Ref with a Remain option
- Revoke A50 via vote in HoP
3) Revoke A50
can be revoked by the UK alone, without agreement of the EU & we go back to the *exact* same deal we have now (rebate, no Euro etc)

However it must be a revoke in "good faith", we revoke because we are staying indefinitely, not as a pause whilst we have a rethink
4) Delay A50
We can request a delay but there are 3 provisions, 1 legal, 2 practical
- every EU27 country must agree to the extension
- individual EU27 countries may ask for concessions for an extension
- there must be a valid "Remain" reason for the extension
5) May's deal & an extension
This is an assumption but based on messages from EU27

The EU27 do not think May's deal is a bad deal, its the best achievable which meets the irish border issue and the red line of ending FoM, which Labour also has

It's bad for the UK of course
6) there are no other deals available & certainly none which meet the demands of the ERG or Labour (who actually have complex red lines as well)

The deal had to pass EU law and 27 nations, and they are simply not prepared to reopen the negotiation
7) the internal battles & fantasy propositions of the Labour Party & the ERG are of no interest to the EU27, just as the internal politics of Latvia are of no interest to us.

They have reached a deal with the government of the UK, under its red lines & priorities
8) if Labour was offering full membership of CU + SM they may be tempted to open negotiations, but Labour are not.

There is one deal however that's better than May's, and that is Remain.

However although they prefer this, the EU27 are more than reconciled to the UK leaving
9) extend A50, part 2
Given this, the EU27 may agree to an extension of A50 if there was a reasonable chance of that better deal, Remain. And an extension is required for any other options beyond the 3 above
A GE or a #PeoplesVote for example both need an extension in reality
10) so, the EU27 will agree to an extension most likely for the following:
- a GE with one party on an unambiguous Remain platform
- a 2nd Ref with a Remain option

The EU will not extend for:
- a GE which results in fresh negotiations (ie Labour current position)
- new ERG deal
11) therefore, because the EU is broadly OK with May's deal & because the UK has been an unreliable partner (making agreements then returning to the UK saying "we didn't mean it", threatening to withhold agreed payments)...
12)...and because the other players (ERG & Labour) are starting from an unrealistic baseline the EU27 are extremely unlikely to reenter negotiations, and certainly not all agree to a necessary extension of A50 to do so (remember, all 27 have to agree to any A50 extension)
13) on this both Labour & the ERG are missing an essential point. Just because we believe May's deal is a bad one, and it is, that doesn't mean the EU27 also feel the same. Again, it's the best deal available under the conditions laid down by the UK.
14) therefore, we can't revoke A50 to get a different deal, only if we intend to stay

We can't extend A50 for new negotiations by Labour or a "managed" no deal (because a managed no deal is of course actually a deal), only if the intention of that extension is a possible Remain
15) there is no incentive for the EU27 to extend A50 & restart negotiations because any new deal would likely be the same or worse for them.

But they will not respond to a no deal threat because:
a) they don't believe us and
b) 27 sovereign nations cannot give in to blackmail
16) all of which brings us back to the 3 options
- No deal
- May's deal
- Remain
Which really leads, inevitably, to one option
17) No Deal
We cannot accidently "no deal" brexit as we now know that there is an emergency rip cord parliament could simply vote to revoke A50 if nothing else was on the table on March 29th.

No deal is therefore a choice by MPs, even if that choice is inaction

It won't happen
18) May's deal
There are so many MPs invested in rejecting May's deal that a turnaround is very unlikely, though possible

For many Brexit MPs May's deal, although its a natural progression of Vote Leave promises, is actually worse than Remain due to the surrender of sovereignty
19) which brings us to Remain
We can get to Remain via a GE or a 2nd ref as long as Remain is an option in either case

But in the end if there are no other options, MPs will be forced to Revoke A50 because, as mentioned, no deal cannot be portrayed as an accident.
20) this logical progression is why a #PeoplesVote has gone from nowhere to everywhere in the past 2 weeks. MPs are waking up to the fact that they will likely have to revoke A50 at some point, and they want air cover from the electorate.
21) Labour Leadership will continue to talk about it's fantasy deal, May about her deal being the only deal & the ERG will morph no deal to managed no deal to hard Brexit to world trade deal and back depending on who they are talking to.
22) Something might change of course however all roads currently lead to Remain.None of the 3 pro brexit groups can command a majority & one of them, Labour Leadership, doesn't even have a pro Brexit mandate from its supporters

And the options as outlined are very limited
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