Thread by @jonworth

So I have been wondering... how do we actually work out the impact of the Tory leadership election on #Brexit?

When both of the candidates are so very vague or 🦄 with their statements...

There is a series by @MSmithsonPB about the current odds on who wins - the latest is here:
www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/arch…

That has then gone into a revised V6 of my #BrexitDiagram

Edges up the chances of an election, and edges down No Deal and Brexit with a Deal

The chances are:

General Election - 63%
#PeoplesVote - 4%
No Deal - 18%
Extend Art 50 period - 8%
Brexit with a Deal - 7%

So let's then just assume Johnson wins, and adjust the diagram accordingly

The chances are as follows:

General Election - 66% (+3)
#PeoplesVote - 4% (-)
No Deal - 17% (-1)
Extend Art 50 period - 7% (-1)
Brexit with a Deal - 6% (-1)

Then what if Hunt somehow manages to win it?

The chances are as follows:

General Election - 42% (-21)
#PeoplesVote - 4% (-)
No Deal - 28% (+10)
Extend Art 50 period - 12% (+4)
Brexit with a Deal - 14% (+7)

So if HUNT wins, it reduces the chances of a General Election (although that's still the most likely), and increases chances of No Deal - in the main because routes to other options are still blocked.

With a JOHNSON victory - pretty much the baseline scenario anyway - you end up with a General Election being odds-on, thereby reducing the chances of No Deal.

As ever critique and feedback on this most welcome.

High res PNGs and PDFs, the XML for draw(.)io and the .ods file for the calculation are on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends