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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
This deserves wider circulation - @DmitryOpines has calculated that in the event of a no-deal Brexit UK exports to the EU will be worse hit by tariffs than EU exporters to UK - even though the EU exports twice as many goods to the UK as vice versa
Rationale: The UK no-deal tariff announcement eliminates tariffs on large parts of trade unilaterally (for a set time period), whereas EU tariffs will remain in place for UK exports. Full article (warning, contains bad jokes) here explaintrade.com/blogs/2019/6/2…
Not only does the UK tariff announcement mean EU exporters have less to worry about than UK exporters, it is also widely rumoured that one major trading partner is stalling on replicating their EU trade agreement with the UK for the same reason
Welcome to the world of UK choice on trade policy. Lowering tariffs may be economically beneficial but with losers including many manufacturing jobs. Or seek to reach deals which involve mutual gain, but also mean concessions. And if there's no vision, how do you decide?
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Has anyone else yet noticed the incongruity between suggesting an emergency budget to deal with no-deal Brexit, which can be amended, and a Parliament opposed to a no-deal Brexit?
I think @xtophercook captured the tory leadership contest well this morning
Superficial. But essentially offering nothing new, in particular to solve the problem of finding a majority in Parliament for something also acceptable to the EU. Which remains the fundamental question neither candidate wants to discuss.
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The thaw in the information flow from the Department for International Trade continues, with this letter. This paragraph for example is revealing - are US, Australia and New Zealand no longer the priorities? parliament.uk/documents/comm…
In particular post-Brexit priorities are likely to be affected by Japan having refused to roll-over the existing agreement (and we await text, but also the suggestion Korea only agreed to rollover for a limited duration). Turkey is also a problem
Finally, confirmation that agreements with Switzerland, Iceland, and Norway are not (can't be) direct rollovers of existing agreements, but only insofar as possible. A reminder that no-deal doesn't just affect trade with EU members, but the whole European neighbourhood
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
This is presumably the first Conservative Party leadership contest where candidates are competing over which of them is more determined to offend businesses theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
Business organisations, since they employ trade policy specialists, are also aware that it isn't just no-deal for a day, it is no-deal for years to come as trade deals don't happen quickly

(perhaps media organisations could also do with some specialist trade knowledge?)
It is also entirely possible that we would leave the EU with no-deal and then in the future sign a deal very similar to that on offer now, which might also lead businesses to wonder about whether their sacrifices to the god of pure Brexit was completely worthwhile
Read 3 tweets

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Seamus Leheny
@Freight_NI
🚨Brexit Thread 🚨
1/11 - Lots of talk and focus on what will happen to the Border in the event of a ‘No Deal’ #brexit
Let me outline the impact on just one of these roads for Freight:
The A1 crossing at Newry~Dundalk, currently a frictionless efficient strategic road 👇
2/11 - Over the 24hr period of Wednesday 5 June 2019,
8,390 Goods Vehicles crossed the border via the A1:
3,038 Artics 🚛
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU opinion divided this morning: those who fear creeping inevitability of no deal #Brexit , others are upbeat: say: the negotiated Brexit deal is the last option standing; others see possibility of longer Brexit extension for general elex/2nd ref /1
Ambassadors of the 27 EU countries meet in Brussels this morning to debate the #Brexit What's Next. Will discuss ongoing no deal preparations. Concerns in rest of EU that Dublin hasn't made sufficient preparations /2
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
NEW: Right. Will there, or will there not be a border in Northern Ireland in the event of a 'no deal' #brexit?

Today HMRC is holding conversations with NI business groups on what happens. I have copy of the talking points handed out. What do we learn? 1/Thread
It's all based on the UK Government's communication from March 12 on how it would handle a 'no deal'....known in Brussels as the 'smugglers' charter' - it is summarised in the talking points thus: /2

gov.uk/guidance/eu-ex…
So the UK is committed to having no checks for stuff going from Republic to the North....which begs the questions set out here in the talking points paper.

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
While there is widespread disagreement about whether the EU will blink or not over #Brexit (spoiler alert: the bloc is more flexible than it wants to indicate right now) it’s arguably more useful to think what kind of eventual ‘concessions’ we might be talking about from the EU 1
It’s true the EU has a history of blinking in the last moment BUT only in its own interest. In the Greek debt crisis the bloc chose to keep Greece in the eurozone in order (leaders thought) to better protect the whole currency 2
When I say EU will be more flexible than seems right now, I don’t mean ditching the backstop. EU leaders want to protect the single market. They earn more from it than from trade with UK alone. Protecting border on island of Ireland = protecting SM as well as NI peace process 3
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Steve Herman
@W7VOA
#UK Foreign Secretary @BorisJohnson has resigned, according to @10DowningStreet.
"His replacement will be announced shortly," @10DowningStreet spokesman says.
More on the @BorisJohnson resignation:
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. This is a particularly boring thread but if this doesn't make the point about a no deal #Brexit then nothing will. It relates to an obscure story in the @FarmersGuardian last August and a blunder by the EU Commission.
2. The European Commission failed to re-authorise the Red Tractor assurance scheme, along with four different schemes from other member states, despite the application for re-approval being lodged six months prior.
3. The unexplained gaffe meant farmers whose grain was destined for the biofuels market were been left in the lurch, with some having to fork out for interim storage. No paperwork or tick in a box equals no trade. That's how the system works.
Read 13 tweets

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