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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Has anyone else yet noticed the incongruity between suggesting an emergency budget to deal with no-deal Brexit, which can be amended, and a Parliament opposed to a no-deal Brexit?
I think @xtophercook captured the tory leadership contest well this morning
Superficial. But essentially offering nothing new, in particular to solve the problem of finding a majority in Parliament for something also acceptable to the EU. Which remains the fundamental question neither candidate wants to discuss.
Me, me, me, us, us, us. Oh, and more than a hint of the socialism now sweeping the Conservative Party - we'll put up barriers to trade and subsidise those losing out (unclear if this is WTO legal).
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Informative thread on what the Irish Government makes of the Alternative Arrangements Commission. They have problems with it, and proposals don't substitute for a backstop. No surprise.

Ultimately though you need realistic dialogue, and AAC is at least half a step forward
Not surprisingly the one-nation group of Conservatives (joint leader Nicky Morgan) endorse the alternative arrangement proposals (joint chair Nicky Morgan).
To be clear before @GregHands and @Power_Jen complain again about negativitity, the Alternative Arrangements Commission in no way 'solves' the Irish border, but has helpful elements. Treat it as a solution, however, and it will be rejected.
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Featuring m'learned colleague @leemakiyama and an interesting example of modern negotiating dynamics - the EU can't brag too much about the Mercosur trade deal because that would look bad in Brazil, Argentina etc... politico.eu/article/mercos…
I know we're only 3 years into the UK as a negotiator but it is quite staggering how badly we're doing when most MPs in our governing party think you get a good deal by threatening to leave and the media hardly challenge them
This exchange earlier in the week of Liam Fox being challenged as to why the UK wasn't just giving the EU an FTA to sign is quite revealing - that MPs can think that's how negotiations work. Fox thankfully has learnt a few things...
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
With Canada joining Japan in choosing not to roll over the existing EU trade deal in the event of a no-deal Brexit, let's recap on where we are on trade in no-deal Brexit - TL:DR - not at all a pretty picture 1/ buzzfeed.com/alexspence/can…
There are 24 countries with which the UK has a >£10bn trading relationship (exports plus imports). We currently have preferential deals with 16 (EU plus highlighted). Of these we believe only one (South Korea) will be unchanged in a no-deal Brexit 2/
Switzerland and Norway rollovers are partial as @CoppetainPU has been writing with reference to the first. Turkey can't be rolled over in a no-deal Brexit. And even with South Korea (full text to come) there are stories of some time limited clauses 3/ tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/12/uk-…
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
The basic problem with the Brexit Party is that though leavers may not be thick, their representatives very much are. They have a two dimensional concept of trade and international relations and that is why they are pushing for such a reckless gamble of a #Brexit.
They think trade is just a matter of sorting out tariffs. Explain to them that it involves everything from data adequacy agreements through to maritime surveillance and intellectual property (to name just three of three hundred), you'll be met with a blank stare.
The base assumption is that businesses trade with each other without the intervention of government - but it is through harmonisation that we have erased many of the impediments to trade and created vast new markets on anything from carbon trading to data services.
Read 20 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Latest piece. With short #Brexit thread
Mood in Brussels is bleak. Many senior EU officials now put odds of no-deal at 60% or higher—their central scenario. Discussions are starting on how to cushion the EU’s economy from any macroeconomic blow that may arise from no-deal Brexit 1/
Senior EU officials think May’s deal is sunk. They’re sceptical the Commons can coalesce around an alternative plan 2/
Read 16 tweets
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Antonello Guerrera
@antoguerrera
Why Jeremy Corbyn has changed his mind on a 2nd #Brexit referendum and why this might paradoxically help May to get her deal through the Parliament. A thread from my article in @repubblica

(I usually do this Brexit stuff in Italian, I’ll try in English now, hope to be decent 😊)
First of all, the most obvious thing: Corbyn did this move not only because of a new Brexit strategy but above all because of a party strategy: the hemorrhage of moderate or outraged MPs had to be stopped somehow. The Independent group surely was concerning him. We’ll see.
Sure this move won’t stop the MPs shocked by the accusations of antisemitism, but it might have a good impact on the europhile ones. The new mantra is clear: until the choice is between May’s deal and No Deal, the new Labour weapon is a new, 2nd referendum.
#Brexit
Read 19 tweets
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BorderWarnings
@BorderWarnings
1~
18.04.2016
Theresa Villiers contradicts statements by Ahern, Hayes and Lawson.
irishnews.com/news/2016/04/1…
2~
Warnings from:
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, German Foreign Minister
Peter Mandleson, former U.K. Northern Ireland secretary
Dermot Ahern, Former Irish Foreign Minister
Conor Patterson, CEO Newry and Mourne Co-operative and Enterprise Agency
politico.eu/article/northe…
3~
12.05.2016
FW Steinmeier, German Foreign Minister:
"The very moment that the U.K. leaves, we'll have a border again between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That has at least the potential to ignite a conflict that apparently has become totally calm."
politico.eu/article/juncke…
Read 92 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) This is the reality of #Brexit

Those on this side of the channel who think there's some fundamental difference between Tory Brexiters like Mogg & Labour ones like Corbyn are kidding themselves, they're all chasing exactly the same unicorns as far as the EU27 are concerned
2) Please have a read. It's a hard thread but it demonstrates why anyone, *anyone*, Tory or Labour, who tells you they can get a "better deal" on #Brexit is lying to themselves or you, and has a bad case of English exceptionalism

3) we, as a country, would never give France or Germany or any other country a better deal than the one we have ourselves, whether the nastiest right wingers or the cuddliest left wingers asked for it.

It's simply delusional to think 27 would do for us

Read 7 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Sir Ivan Rogers speech, a sobering & devastating speech from our former leading EU diplomat on #Brexit, its history and the UK position.

Should be read by *everyone* however I'll pull out a few key points in this thread

webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache…
2) the UK already had the best deal of all EU member states. We may not have believed it but the other 27 nations did.
Anyone who thinks about this for more than 5 minutes would realise this
Cameron in fact managed to improve it further, but the press torpedoed his deal
3) the 4 freedoms are seen as indivisible by the EU27. Trucks & money having more rights to move than people is absolutely unacceptable to them. That's just a fact.
Anyone, Labour or Tory, who tells you we can get a great deal without free movement of people is lying to you
Read 20 tweets

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