Thread by @Usherwood

I've not tweeted much about #ConservativeLeadershipRace, mainly because I'm placing a high discount on their Brexit remarks prior to actually entering office.

However, it's useful to think about what we should look for in those opening days

1/

Let's think about this at the levels of:
- prioritisation
- organisation
- personnel
- policy

2/

First test how much does Brexit swamp out every other aspect of the opening days. Is this a Big Push or is there stocktaking ahead of more considered action?

3/

Of course, the candidates might be considering right now all this, so they can push ahead (which'd be telling on how much of the campaign is hot air), but this is probably more a reflection on whether they'll fall into the May trap of thinking there's capacity for other stuff

4/

Secondly, do they reorganise Brexit policy mgt? @DExEUgov's position isn't the most secure anyway, but does the new PM want to lose time/effort to pulling its functions back into other units?

Crucially, does the PM want more work coming from his own office?

5/

Which takes us into personnel, the third aspect.

Brexit is central, so who gets the plum jobs, both political and bureaucratic? Do you value competence or loyalty?

(this might be point to consider whether you 'refresh' your diplomats too)

6/

Only after these points do we get to policy per se.

All of the other stuff will set up signals about policy that might be clearer than any particular form of words used

7.

Given that both candidates have been engaging in ambiguity on taking a tough line, it's going to be a while before it's evident what that actually means, not least because the opportunity to have any negotiation w EU27 before Sept is minimal

8/

tl;dr if you want to know what Brexit policy will be like, you'll have to wait a bit and then have to focus on the contextual aspects

/end