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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Confused about timelines for #EUTopJobs and #Brexit?

Try this, which came off the back of this post about @vonderleyen

blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2019/…

@UKandEU
Key point to take away is that EU jobs are filled immediately, but with enough delay that they don't really impact on Brexit ahead of the 31 October deadline
And here with the UK timeline too: basically one side's done before the summer, the other after (and quite a lot after)
@AndrewSparrow
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More from @Usherwood see all

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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
Ahead of a busy week in London, a quick list of things that matter in the blockage of the Brexit process

NB - the identity of the PM isn't one of them

1/
The biggest issue is that the UK still does not have a consensus view on what the purpose of the entire exercise is.

Lots of people have ideas, but none has been able to turn that into a conceptualisation that is widely supported

2/
That leads into a second key problem: no-one is in a politically strong enough position to force that consensus view.

There's no coalition of forces that enjoys a robust majority in the Commons for a positive course of action

3/
Read 12 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
Since I'm on the slow train to Wigan, there's time for some thoughts about today's amendment

1/
Firstly, there's a difference between avoiding proroguing and avoiding a no-deal Brexit and avoiding Brexit at all

Commons might be comfortable with one, w/o implying the other

2/
Secondly, and relatedly, putting tools in the toolkit doesn't mean they get used.

Commons has repeatedly hesitated to confront government head on

3/
Read 6 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
Back last autumn, @UKandEU produced a report on transition, including the problems with it

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…

Maybe a good time to go over these once more

1/
With the likely new PM talking about extending transition as a way of not having a backstop arrangement, it's important to understand how transition works

2/
The model is essentially 'membership minus', because the UK would do everything a member state does, but without voting or representation

3/
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The @BorisJohnson #brexit renegotiation plan, as told to @ShippersUnbound

It seems as if the new negotiation will be the same as the last one: prefaced with undeliverable promises. /1
Boris is equally cakeist in trade: we can have a trade deal without allowing US food standards or putting NHS on table - he obviously wasn’t listening to @realDonaldTrump or hasn’t read USTR trade negotiation objectives (good summary here)/3

blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2019/03/…
I imagine that Whitehall’s mandarins, including the soon to move on Olly Robbins, will be delighted to hear this mission will be “minister-led” and “personally directed” by Prime Minister Johnson.

Time for officers, not their foot soldiers to take the flak /3
Read 6 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Where @ShippersUnbound reveals the Tory-Labour #brexit deal...which doesn’t make that much sense...

Apparently it’s a ‘customs arrangement til 2022 election...and then may the best team win on fight for hard/soft Brexit.

But.../1

thetimes.co.uk/article/c42af7…
If this gets the Withdrawal Agreement over the line, Customs is a pretty moot question until 2022 because we’re in a standstill transition arrangement...it could in theory end earlier But..../2
If the U.K. has passed the Withdrawal Agreement it will also have agreed to the Irish backstop - no hard border/no additional infrastructure and related checks and controls.

Which means hard Brexit advocates MUST fix this issue as part of trade/future talks. /3
Read 9 tweets
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BorderWarnings
@BorderWarnings
1~
18.04.2016
Theresa Villiers contradicts statements by Ahern, Hayes and Lawson.
irishnews.com/news/2016/04/1…
2~
Warnings from:
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, German Foreign Minister
Peter Mandleson, former U.K. Northern Ireland secretary
Dermot Ahern, Former Irish Foreign Minister
Conor Patterson, CEO Newry and Mourne Co-operative and Enterprise Agency
politico.eu/article/northe…
3~
12.05.2016
FW Steinmeier, German Foreign Minister:
"The very moment that the U.K. leaves, we'll have a border again between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That has at least the potential to ignite a conflict that apparently has become totally calm."
politico.eu/article/juncke…
Read 92 tweets
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the3million
@the3million
Did you vote Leave?
Are you just tired of the permanent fight between Leave & Remain? Well here is a #Brexit topic both Leavers & Remainers can unite & agree on: the #citizensrights of EU citizens who have made their home in the UK.

1/
No one voted to take away #citizensrights from EU citizens already living in the UK.
No one voted to put 3m EU citizens through almost 1,000 days of uncertainty over their status in the country they made their home.
No one voted to punish their EU neighbours & colleagues.

2/
Whether people voted Leave or Remain they voted in the knowledge of the Vote Leave promise to EU citizens:
- no change for EU citizens
- a new automatic status
- treated no less favourably than at present

3/
Read 9 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Great article on why #Brexit is insoluble
We can rail about respecting the vote, the EU being stubborn,May being incompetent etc all day long. The fact is it cannot be negotiated successfully, and anyone who believes otherwise is mistaken
#Lab18

blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09…
2) reasons are very simple, and always have been. The deal that was promised & any feasible deal are so far apart as to be unrecognisable

Either Brexit will be so painful that it will destroy the party who implements or so meaningless that it would be embarrassing to implement
3) half the country do not want Brexit, the other half (apart from the hardcore) voted for the pain free, cake & eat it easy brexit that was promised.

There is *no* feasible Brexit that would gain a majority in the UK & non possible within the EU & UKs red lines
Read 4 tweets
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Dr Dominic Pimenta
@juniordrblog
“There were lies on both sides”. Is that really true? /thread #Brexit /1
1) “950,000 job losses” is predicated on leaving the EU so not yet. Certainly no large scale losses have occurred
Verdict: Too early to say
2) Since Brexit real weekly earnings have fallen by 0.5% ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=… mostly due to inflation. That’s £25 so far.
Verdict: Fact
Read 20 tweets

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