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A FOLLOW-ON THREAD - Expected Goals on Target (xGOT) revisited.
Many thanks for all your comments and feedback regarding my original thread on xGOT. It was great to share something that was new to me and hopefully might prove useful to us all.
(1/n)
Many thanks for all your comments and feedback regarding my original thread on xGOT. It was great to share something that was new to me and hopefully might prove useful to us all.
(1/n)
On the suggestion of @ahopcroft13, I have re-run the analysis with a focus on a particular type of player - those whose shots tend to be in (or around) the pen area.
In addition, realising that xGOT data was available from 17/18, the sample was extended to both seasons.
(2/n)
In addition, realising that xGOT data was available from 17/18, the sample was extended to both seasons.
(2/n)
In this case, 9 players were identified who had an NPxGOT that exceeded their NPxG by at least 10%. The "elite finishers".
Identical names from the original analysis, although Martial dropped down the hierarchy significantly in this larger sample (50% down to 26.15%).
(3/n)
Identical names from the original analysis, although Martial dropped down the hierarchy significantly in this larger sample (50% down to 26.15%).
(3/n)
Interestingly, the "poor finishers" were dramatically reduced in number. Only 4 players had an NPxGOT that was lower than NPxG by at least 10%.
Richarlison joins the group due to his 17/18 stats. But big names like Aguero, Vardy and Jesus (29% to 3.4%) all drop out.
(4/n)
Richarlison joins the group due to his 17/18 stats. But big names like Aguero, Vardy and Jesus (29% to 3.4%) all drop out.
(4/n)
The remainder of the sample is shown below - big shout-out to Ashley Barnes for doing absolutely nothing of interest across the entire analysis 😄.
A host of big names now largely living up to their xG.
(5/n)
A host of big names now largely living up to their xG.
(5/n)
Of course, what we are looking at here is not a definite measure of finishing ability.
Whilst it looks at shot positioning, it does not consider the timing and strength of the shot. Nor does it consider shots that whistled inches past the post.
(6/n)
Whilst it looks at shot positioning, it does not consider the timing and strength of the shot. Nor does it consider shots that whistled inches past the post.
(6/n)
But this new analysis serves to widen the sample as much as we currently can (2 seasons - before that data seems incomplete), and compares "like-for-like" in terms of attacking players.
And hopefully it can serve as another useful tool in our question for FPL success. 👍
(7/n)
And hopefully it can serve as another useful tool in our question for FPL success. 👍
(7/n)
Once again, this analysis was conducted using Opta stats within the highly customisable @FFScout members area that I highly recommend.
Big thanks for @rogue_wee for his support and advice. And thanks again to everyone for their comments and suggestions.
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Big thanks for @rogue_wee for his support and advice. And thanks again to everyone for their comments and suggestions.
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