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A note on the CNN decision to air debates on successive nights rather than the same night (a sensible decision with unfortunate fundraising implications for first-nighters): Beto, Booker, and Castro are competing for second-tier dollars; Booker and Castro will be second-nighters.
While Buttigieg is also, like Beto, a first-nighter—and in *polling* is in the same tier as Beto, Booker, and Castro (albeit atop the tier)—in fundraising he's so far ahead of anyone and everyone in the second polling tier that Pete being a first-nighter has little effect on him.
So in terms of the debate draw, you'd have to say Booker and Castro are winners, while Beto (and Klobuchar) are disadvantaged. That said, besides Sanders and Warren, the first night is moderate *enough* that Buttigieg and Beto have chance to burnish their progressive bona fides.
Conventional wisdom gives Harris a clear way forward—while submitting that one of Warren or Sanders need to bow out for the other to fully shine. Booker or Castro may benefit if Harris stumbles (unlikely)—but who benefits if Biden does? I'd guess Beto and Buttigieg hope they can.
If Biden stumbles, one reason would be Swalwell's "time to pass the torch" argument—which benefits Buttigieg, Beto, and Castro (and Booker and Harris, both in their fifties, secondarily). But if Biden stumbles and moderates are looking for a moderate, Buttigieg or Beto could fit.
But so much of Biden's support comes from older black voters—and his name recognition in that demographic—that if he stumbles his support could go almost anywhere, as no one else but Sanders has *very* high name recognition. Harris and Booker are only two possible beneficiaries.
Having said all that, "lane theory" is popular among many political analysts but I'm not sure I buy it—I think popularity is *much* more based on media coverage, which is why media deciding (quite obviously) to end Beto's campaign is more consequential than anything else, really.
Media is "tired" of Sanders, Beto, De Blasio, Biden, and to a certain extent Booker, so it'll be hard for any of them to suddenly take off. Meanwhile, media is—understandably—excited by Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and Castro, so any of those four could see a sudden near-term rise.
I feel bad for Biden, Sanders, and Beto supporters, as those candidates will survive only if they find a way around the conventional media altogether. Meanwhile, I'm sad at any undue media advantage, but think all of Harris, Warren, Buttigieg and Castro are great candidates, too.
The only thing the average voter can do is ignore media altogether. If you're interested in someone, visit their website (e.g., the only way to give the lie to media's claim Beto hasn't offered any specific policies is to visit his website and see for yourself that that's a lie).
