Thread by @TESLAcharts

1/ I hereby submit that this was a fake product. That it didn't exist. That it won't ever exist as displayed in October 2016. I came to this conclusion in the moment, but I've not yet explained how I knew. I will now. $TSLAQ

2/ Any idiot can put a solar array into an aesthetically pleasing encapsulated form that looks like a roof tile. The hard part is connecting the tiles and harvesting the electricity produced in a way that is SIMPLE, SAFE, and ECONOMICAL. Elon solved none of these things. $TSLAQ

3/ In fact, he probably didn't even try. First of all, there were no connectors whatsoever on the product shown that night. Literally. It has a smooth back. My jaw dropped. See for yourself. $TSLAQ

4/ Contrast what Elon showed in 2016 with what Electrek now claims is the solar shingle product, Version 3. See the difference? Version 3 won't work either (that's another thread), but this alone should convince you what a con the original solar shingle reveal was. $TSLAQ

5/ I said the connectors had to be SIMPLE, SAFE, and ECONOMICAL. Let's take them in order. $TSLAQ

6/ The connectors need to be very SIMPLE. Here's why: installation and labor costs are just as large (if not larger) than the product cost itself. To say it politely, there's a wide skill range within roofing labor. People come and go in such roles. It is a difficult job. $TSLAQ

7/ The connectors need to be designed for massively simple installation with minimal training. It is a much tougher problem than one might think, especially if you are retrofitting a house and not working on a new build. One poorly-installed shingle can cause a failure. $TSLAQ

8/ They need to be SAFE. You cannot put a solar shingle product on a house without a stamp from Underwriters Laboratory (UL). Period. You just can't. Their testing procedures are brutal, lengthy (think years) and difficult to pass. For a very good reason. $TSLAQ

9/ The reason a UL stamp is critical isn't just for building codes. No insurer is going to write you a homeowners policy without one, for starters. And even if you get UL approval, it doesn't mean insurers will just rubber stamp it. They will want field data on safety. $TSLAQ

10/ They need to be ECONOMICAL. This is because of channel. Home builders own the channel for new construction. Their objectives are simple. Build homes as fast and cheaply as possible. Keep to the budget. Move on to the next project. That's how they win. $TSLAQ

11/ I focus on new builds in tweet 10 because retrofitting an existing roof with solar shingles is really tough. Why? You guessed it. Wiring and connectors. Unless your home was designed with solar shingles in mind, it is extremely tough to do it economically. $TSLAQ

12/ Which leads to my final point: addressable market. It is quite tiny. Even if you solved all the problems mentioned in this thread, builders won't put a solar roof on a new construction unless (1) the home is built for a specific customer and (2) they demand it. $TSLAQ

13/ And even if the customer demands it, the builder will try to talk them out of it. They'll argue insurance costs and resale challenges. They'll argue expense and build times. They simply don't want to do this. There's no incentive for them. Period. $TSLAQ

14/ But Elon could just force his way in and do it himself, you say? Bullshit. He'd better learn foundation work, framing, plumbing and everything else. A builder isn't going to make room for a competitor. And that's what Elon would be. $TSLAQ

15/ With this background, go back and spend 20 minutes watching the solar shingle reveal. You'll see what I mean. He mentions none of this. It was, and still is, a joke. $TSLAQ

16/ But stock price bro. Trade carefully.
$TSLAQ