Thread by @TESLAcharts

1/ I see a certain millennial is out tweeting about conspiracies and threading the needle on Q2 GAAP profit again. Time for some real data analysis and proper charting. Here is the official TC Fraud Detector Cheat Sheet™️ for next week. $TSLAQ

2/ As a reminder, if you subtract automotive gross margins from GAAP net income, you isolate the rest of the income statement. Essentially, $TSLA needs to generate $1.4B in automotive gross margin to break even. Notice the immaculate quarter of Q3 2018. Sus bro. $TSLAQ

3/ With 95,200 deliveries in Q2, $TSLA will have to achieve $14,700 automotive gross margin dollars per vehicle delivered. How has this metric trended in the past two years? It has dropped precipitously. $TSLAQ

4/ Why the big drop? The Model 3 dominates $TSLA's global delivery numbers, growing from zero in 2017 (highest margin quarters) to over 80% in Q1 (lowest margin quarter). It grew slightly again in Q2. $TSLAQ

5/ And we know for a fact that the mix of those Model 3s has deteriorated substantially in Q2 versus Q1. Here is my estimate for the US (Europe mix was also down, and Canada was primarily SR+). $TSLAQ

6/ So for $TSLA to turn a GAAP profit in Q2, the average automotive gross margin per vehicle delivered would have to INCREASE 24% over Q1, despite a worse Model 3 mix and substantial price cuts on the S/X variants.

7/ And so what if they do? Here is a crude chart depicting how ridiculous $TSLA's valuation is at these price levels. Let's assume by some miracle (err fraud) they improve automotive gross margins by 43% to 17K per delivery. The annualized P/E at $250 a share? A cool 50. $TSLAQ

8/ So there you have it. The TC Fraud Detecter Cheat Sheet™️ is this:

Subtract automotive gross margin from GAAP net income and compare it to minus $1.4B

Divide automotive gross margin by 95,200 and compare it to the chart in tweet 3 of this thread.

Trade carefully.
$TSLAQ