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1/ Out of sheer boredom, the adults in $TSLAQ have let the kids have the run of the big board lately. I'll take it back for this short thread on ASP changes in Q2 versus Q1, and some thoughts on what is needed for $TSLA to achieve a GAAP profit in Q2.
2/ Question 1: Did average selling price for Model 3 rise or decline in Q2 versus prior quarter? Let's have a look at the data. $TSLAQ
3/ We begin in the US. By my best estimates, nearly half of the NMVTIS registrations for the quarter (covering roughly 96% of ALL US sales) were for SR+. There were some SR+ in Q1 to be sure, but not many. This is negative for sequential ASP. $TSLAQ 
4/ Since this is TeslaCharts and not TeslaTables, here is the data in visual form. Note that Q2 was basically Q1, plus SR+. This does not support higher average prices in the US sequentially. $TSLAQ
5/ And to put a nail in it, here is the excellent data from @CovfefeCapital on real ASPs from a representative sample of US registrations. He models a 12% decline in Model 3 sale price. I believe Covfefe. $TSLAQ
6/ What about Europe? Thanks to the great work of @AlexT18503601, we have the excellent website eu-evs.com. Here are the sequential trim changes in NO+NL+SP (45% of EU M3s). Performance cut in half, lower-end models increasing. Not supportive of higher ASPs. $TSLAQ
7/ What about Canada? Canada is a bit of a black box - but since SR+ was the only $TSLA variant to qualify for the new subsidies it is safe to assume that (1) the vast majority of deliveries were for SR+ and (2) Canadian sales hurt sequential ASPs.
8/ And that leaves China. I trust the JL Warren data that deliveries were flat sequentially at roughly 10K units. I see no indications that mix changed favorably. Maybe, but I doubt it. $TSLAQ
9/ Answer to question 1: Every piece of real actual data obtained by $TSLAQ indicates ASPs for the Model 3 declined sequentially in Q2.
10/ Question 2: What does $TSLA have to do to achieve a GAAP profit in Q2? This requires a little more speculation, but we can set the boundary conditions.
11/ I posted this chart over the weekend, which I found interesting. If you take $TSLA's GAAP net income and subtract reported automotive gross margins, you can isolate all the other puts and takes on the income statement. $TSLAQ
12/ When you add SARD, interest payments, gross margin losses from battery/solar/services, you find that $TSLA needs to generate roughly $1.4B in gross margin from automotive sales to break even. Here is the data in table form. $TSLAQ
13/ I recognize that simply dividing automotive gross profit by global deliveries is a crude measure, but directionally it is instructive. What does it mean for Q2? $1.4B divided by 95,200 deliveries yields $14.7K gm per delivery required to break even, up 23% from Q1. $TSLAQ
14/ Could $TSLA have produced 23% more gross margin per car delivered in Q2 versus Q1? I suppose. With Elon and accounting, anything is possible. I have my doubts. $TSLAQ
15/ Answer to question 2: For $TSLA to show a GAAP profit, it will have to substantially increase gross margins per car delivered in the face of a deteriorating mix and falling prices. Trade carefully $TSLAQ. <fin>
