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@RaoulGMI FRA OIS pricing $DXY reserve removal by PPT post Debt Resolution. Bank NIM hit in 2Q when collapsed.. now this Funding/De-levering Stress. LCRs weaken again = $XLF buys more $TLT w GC & FHLB FF More 10Y3M flattering till Fed capitulates imho.
@amital13 @DiMartinoBooth @Stimpyz1
@amital13 @DiMartinoBooth @Stimpyz1
@RaoulGMI @amital13 @DiMartinoBooth @Stimpyz1 PPT Sterilizing $DXY reserves usually not risk friendly. “Glitch” can’t be fixed forever - T Bills start firing up. $HYG & $BKLN probably going to starting feeling pain in 2H19 as $XLF PB start cutting back on Leverage/haircuts may start to rise. Eventual QE again bad for Banks.
@RaoulGMI @amital13 @DiMartinoBooth @Stimpyz1 PPT & Fed were 0-2. Underestimated $XLF loading up on $TLT.. but both didn’t realize QT was an econ de-levering event as well as mkt. Plus Mis estimated vertical demand curve 4 reserves (QT Paint Drying) & GC/FF RLAP needs...so inverted 10Y3M.. Rest history. @KeithMcCullough
@RaoulGMI @amital13 @DiMartinoBooth @Stimpyz1 @KeithMcCullough Key: “HQLA projected to decline by about $480B as banks lose non core “deposits” leading 2 decline in Level 1 assets..as available Fed balances decline, banks will need to increase $TLT holdings 2 prevent further sharp decline in HQLA & LCR.”
$XLF @KeithMcCullough @EconguyRosie
$XLF @KeithMcCullough @EconguyRosie
@RaoulGMI @amital13 @DiMartinoBooth @Stimpyz1 @KeithMcCullough @EconguyRosie Now amplifying QT is the T Bill Grenades as LIBOR FRA OIS blows out again. Act IV. $DXY Rips Higher again PPT “Glitch” comes back..only this time unlike all other prior instances ->
Almost Every Single Curve Inverted. $TLT @Stimpyz1 @GHBurnsCFA @Barton_options @amital13 $XLF
Almost Every Single Curve Inverted. $TLT @Stimpyz1 @GHBurnsCFA @Barton_options @amital13 $XLF
@RaoulGMI @amital13 @DiMartinoBooth @Stimpyz1 @KeithMcCullough @EconguyRosie @GHBurnsCFA there’s good reason why Fed & PPT r telling investors not 2 pay any attention to Yield Curves coz QT’s “50Bs” (NotDryPaint) Crashed & Inverted the Curves. DJT knows the liquidity drain is coming w NY Fed recession odds at 33%. But More QE is v bad for $XLF NII. $TLT
@RaoulGMI @amital13 @DiMartinoBooth @Stimpyz1 @KeithMcCullough @EconguyRosie @GHBurnsCFA No coincidence that there has been an acceleration of DJT tweets lately about an inept Fed & If it gets worse PPT might be viewed as unable to “fix glitches.” Curves already inverted. Cake is baked according to $TLT government bond markets.
