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Let me join the mugs' prediction game. My best guess is that we are heading towards an autumn general election. A thread on why. 1/
The characteristic feature of Brexit has been a failure to engage properly with it, to define it, and to concretise it. Every time I have been wrong (so far) on Brexit, it is because I assumed that things would move forward. 2/
But... that hasn't happened. There are too many examples. We had months of 'Brexit means Brexit'. We have had a failure to engage properly with the EU's position and concerns (eg about market integrity). 3/
The hard choices on the Irish border, on regulatory alignment, on trade freedom have been avoided/ignored. Successive extensions have been wasted. 4/
Johnson supporters are deeply split between those who want a deal very much like the WA, those who want a very different (probably unattainable) deal, and those who want no deal. 5/
Theresa May could only manage majorities for unattainable deals. There is no reason (confidence and belief apart) to think that Boris Johnson is better placed. 6/
Seeking to steer either the WA or no deal through Parliament is likely to be impossible. 7/
It is quite possible that he won't even try. He will demand things of the EU which he knows they cannot give, and he may gesture towards no deal... but he is stuck. 8/
I understand that a general election is very risky; but I don't think that there is another choice. 9/
Some are probably thinking that a people's vote might provide the answer. But to get to a people's vote, you need a decision - on what choices to offer to the people. What is the leave option to be? 10/
A general election allows MPs to kick the can down the road. It is almost certain that the EU would extend for a general election. 11/
A general election allows Johnson to make a case for no deal, if that is what he is minded to do (and I am not sure about that). It allows the other parties to make their rival pitches too. It will change (in unpredictable ways) the Parliamentary arithmetic. 12/
Johnson probably thinks he can win it. So too does Jeremy Corbyn and Jo Swinson and even Nigel Farage. It is the option all parties can support. 13/
It may or may not produce a Parliament capable of resolving Brexit. Its big appeal is that it will succeed in deferring the Brexit decision at least for a few more months. 14/14
