Thread by @InsidePeloton96

Grab your crampons guys, we're going climbing again 🧗‍♂️
#PreviewTime

Stage 19: Saint-Jean-De-Maurienne > Tignes (126.5km)

A short stage, but no less barbaric than today's brute of a route. Again, this is all about survival. Who's going to make it?

#TDF2019🇫🇷

PREVIEW THREAD 👇

What an absolute belter of a stage today, right? Admittedly it was a bit of a slow burner, but boy was it fun to watch it explode on those final slopes of the Galibier.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Still, despite a flurry of attacks from the INEOS boys, and a crack from Alaphilippe, the GC remains very much as it was when we left the Pyrenees - with only Bernal gaining on the GC contenders.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

With gaps in the GC still incredibly tight, that leaves the door wide open for some very aggressive racing tomorrow and Saturday.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

At the moment, it appears that the big GC players are all playing a waiting game - sitting back and hoping that the climbs break Alaphilippe.

They're underestimating him by expecting him to crack just from the climbs alone.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

The climbs only contribute to half the game, the rest depends on how the riders race them.

Buchmann and Thomas both said after the finish today that the pace on the Galibier was too slow - that's why Ala was able to hang on.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

If they want to break Alaphilippe and take yellow, they need to run the risk and attack the race from much further out.

Whether that's a solo move, or sending your team to the front to drive an infernal tempo - just make it faster.

That's how you break him.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

To commit to this kind of move, however, you need to have confidence. As well as an 'all or nothing' kind of mentality.

To take yellow you can't have one eye on a top 5 or podium, both eyes need to be on the prize.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

At the moment it looks like only four riders have that kind of mentality:

Pinot
Alaphilippe
Thomas
Bernal

The rest are too focussed on consolidating what they've already achieved.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Tomorrow's stage is a fantastic opportunity for one of these 'all or nothing' attacks. So, enough waffling about what happened today! Let's dive right into tomorrow's route...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Stage 19 is all about the altitude - we spend 25km of tomorrow's 126km-long route above 2000m! That is bound to have a massive impact on the race...

In all there's 3,811m of climbing to conquer; not as much as today, but remember, there are far fewer kilometres!

#TDF2019🇫🇷

After the amount of climbing that we had today (close to 5,000m) this stage is going to break a lot of riders. And with the high speeds we're going to get from the front right from the off tomorrow, it's going to be a real challenge to make the time cut!

#TDF2019🇫🇷

So, we start in Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne tomorrow and climb straight from the neutral zone. It's nothing serious, in fact it's a mere blemish on an otherwise colossal route.

But it is around 1.5km long, with some percentages around 10%. Oh, and it's super narrow.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

The fight for the break is going to be fierce, just like today, and this ramp is ideal for some riders to slip away on.

BUT! It's also ideal for teams like INEOS, Jumbo and Quickstep to mob the front and stop the attacks once a small group makes it off the front.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

These teams don't want to run the risk of Movistar playing anymore devious little games - Landa and Quintana are both within striking distance of those podium spots now.

They'll also want a calmer opening to the stage, especially after today's mental first hour.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

However, saying that, this ramp is really short and even if they do manage to block the road, we're probably going to get a flurry of attacks once we reach the A-road on the other side anyways.

It's up to them really, but I'd definitely form a roadblock early.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Anyways, enough break talk Will, there's mountains to talk about!

After this narrow hill section, we then join a long, wide A-road for 17km. It's a bit of a drag, and if we've not formed a break yet, the speeds are going to be high - ouch.

Stunning views tho 👇

#TDF2019🇫🇷

After this, we swing off and hit the first climb of the day - the Cat 3 Cote de Saint-Andre.

It's a snappy little climb. It may be just 3.3km long but it does average 7%, which will sting a lot of legs, especially after today's stage and so soon into tomorrow's route

#TDF2019🇫🇷

After the summit we take the shortest descent in the world and rejoin the A-road we were on before the climb.

We don't stay on it long however, just 5km later we swing off again and start climbing - this time up a tougher Cat 2 climb:

The Montée d'Aussois.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

This is another tough climb, but the gradients are thankfully quite consistent all the way to the summit - around 6% for 5.8km.

It'll be ridden at a manageable tempo, the riders biding their time for much bigger tests later on.

May as well take the opportunity...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

...to look at the roadside views, they're incredible!

Someone get me on a plane right now.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

There's barely a descent on the other side of this climb, and that's kind of the flavour of the day - we climb all the way from the start to the top of the Iseran, basically.

A real energy sapping day this one.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

We have 14km separating this extremely short descent and the next climb of the day - the Col de la Madeleine.

This section is by no means flat, it's rolling up and down all the way to the foot of the Madeleine.

All I see is my stamina bar slowly depleting...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

This is not the Hors Categorie Col de la Madeleine that we all know and love. That baby is much further north.

This Madeleine is more sponge cake than epic mountain pass...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Okay, I'm doing it a little bit of a disservice here, it is still a tricky climb - 3.9km long at an average gradient of 6.9%

And that average grade really does hide some monster ramps. We've got some sections at the start that peak at 15%, and another near to the top

#TDF2019🇫🇷

It's a climb that really suits the specialists, the true mountain goats of the peloton. The change in rhythm will play into their hands - but is it too far from the finish for a massive attack?

Yes. Please don't launch here lads.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Like the other climbs we've already discussed, there's not much of a descent following this climb. Instead we hop back aboard the ever familiar D902 A-road and continue our journey towards the infamous Col de l'Iseran.

Don't poo poo your pants now.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

This approach to the Iseran from the Madeliene is around 12km long, just long enough to regather your strengths and say your prayers...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

The intermediate sprint is found halfway along this section in the small town of Bessans.

But come on, do we still care about the green jersey? It's been Sagan's since the moment we left Brussels.

Onwards to the Iseran!

#TDF2019🇫🇷

The Col de l'Iseran - the highest climb of this year's race, topping out at 2,770m, and perhaps the toughest climb they'll face across the three weeks.

This climb is hellish, truly, truly hellish. 12.9km at an average grade of 7.4%.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Unlike the Galibier, the second highest climb on this year's race, the gradients on the Iseran are far from consistent.

They chop and change all the way to the top, which only serves to disrupt a rider's rhythm and push them towards breaking point.

Yay!

#TDF2019🇫🇷

This climb is one for the mountain goats, those built to dance away on double digit ramps, as well as cope with the incredibly thin air.

We're at dizzy, vertigo inducing heights up here - the 2,000m marker is crossed just 2km into the climb! 🤯

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Some of the steepest ramps on the Iseran come right at the start, around 12% through the first hairpin turn and then another section of 12% just after the first kilometre.

This is where we could see some of the talented climbers spring away.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

The hardest part of the Iseran, however, comes between the 8th to 9th kilometre. This section is grim, averaging around 13% for a whole kilometre, with ramps in between of 15%.

Proper leg breakers these, I do not envy the riders one bit.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

The climb does get a tad bit easier after this section, with a few shallower ramps for the next 1-2km. But then as we approach the final 2km it goes right back to being barbaric.

The gradients from this point to the summit barely dip below 10% - a real killer ending!

#TDF2019🇫🇷

The altitude here, combined with the gruelling percentages, make it an ideal point to attack.

And for that reason, it gets awarded my 'Goldilock's Kilometre'* title for tomorrow!

*I really need to trademark this...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

If you can push the riders behind you into the red, and force them above threshold, you can crack them beyond the point of repair.

Once you go into the red at this kind of altitude, it's very difficult to settle back down into a maintainable rhythm.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

No rhythm and you'll start to lose massive amounts of time - and remember! - there's still another big climb to go!

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Just going to interrupt this train of thought to bring you an interesting fact...

Egan Bernal was born at the same height as the Iseran. Take from that what you will 😉

#TDF2019🇫🇷

There are bonus seconds at the top of the Iseran, if these haven't been mopped up by a breakaway already then they're definitely going to coax out some of the big GC players.

The gaps on GC are just too tight to pass up on the opportunity.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

After the summit, we're then onto a really long descent - 27km.

It can be split into 3 sections. A technical first 12km, a flatter and straighter mid-section of 7km with some short rises in it, and then a fast final 8km into Les Brevieres.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

This technical section at the top is really tricky. It has some very long straight sections where you can pick up a lot of speed (left).

But then these fly straight into tight hairpin bends, forcing you to really pull on the brakes and lay off the speed (right).

#TDF2019🇫🇷

This is the kind of descent that will really suit the descending specialists. If they can take a gap over the summit of the Iseran, then they can extend it here.

#MakingGains

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Once we reach the bottom of this long descent it's then full blast onto the final climb of the day.

The Montée de Tignes.

It's only been used once before, back in 2007 when Rasmussen took that infamous stage win.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

This is a gruelling climb. It might not be statistically as tough as some of the others they've ridden in the last 24 hours, but all that cumlative fatigue is really going to bite on this climb.

And bite down hard.

Here it is - 9.2km long at an average of 5.5%. Bosh

#TDF2019🇫🇷

The steepest ramps come right at the base of the climb in the twisting hairpin section. If someone needs to attack and gain some significant time, they need to go here.

Leave it past this point and you're just not going to make those #BigGains.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

The rest of the climb stays at a rather consistent gradient of around 8%.

If a rider is starting to hurt, these are the kind of gradients to tactically ease off the front group and ride your own race - try to limit the losses instead of blowing up.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

If the ramps were any steeper, like they are on the Iseran, this is a risky tactic. Best to just stick on the back of the GC group and chew your handlebar tape in those steeper scenarios.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

The final 1.8km of this climb really eases off, but it's not pan flat - more of a slow, cruel final drag.

If you've got a gap here this is the point to sit on the rivet of your saddle, flap your hands over the bars and TT like a madman to the line.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

If we get a small group coming to the line, which I don't expect, we could be in store for an exciting sprint finish along this open, flat finishing straight - especially if that giant 'pothole' is still there! 😂

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Just a brief interlude before we crack on with the rest of the #PreviewTime.

I’m getting quite peckish and really fancy a curry. I’ve dug up this awesome looking menu but now I’m stuck for choice.

Help me out readers, what’s your curry go-to?

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Right, it's been ordered, I'll do the big reveal post #PreviewTime 😉

Where were we?

Oh, that's right, #WeatherWatch!

Again, more forecasts of rain tomorrow, 60% chance throughout the day. This could make some of the descents quite spicy, especially the Iseran's.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

It's also warm again, not as hot as previous days, but still around 30 degrees for the whole afternoon.

Wind? Not really anything to talk about on that front, it's low - around 3-5mph - all day and shouldn't have any real effect on the race.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

So, let's chat tactics! I've already done the majority of that at the start of this #PreviewTime.

But just to reiterate here, tomorrow is all about cracking Alaphilippe. Leaving it to the final mountain stage is way too risky. One team needs to risk it all and just..

#TDF2019🇫🇷

..throw a flurry of punches at Quickstep and Alaphilippe tomorrow, drive a hard pace right from the start and do not relent.

The unrelenting speed on the climbs is what will crack Alaphilippe, not the climb itself.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

But which team is going to put the burners on tomorrow and put Alaphilippe into difficulty?

It's still quite unclear because we're still yet to see a really dominant team emerge in this race! Perhaps that's what has made it so damn exciting...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Movistar are slowly starting to ride into that role however, and they just appear to be getting stronger and stronger as the race goes on.

With Quintana and Landa now within striking distance of a podium, you can bet your house on them animating tomorrow's stage.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

I think Movistar and their crazy racing antics will be the biggest worry for Quickstep and Alaphilippe tomorrow.

He just needs to try and hold on really, that's all he can do now - try and survive the onslaught.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

INEOS have looked weak, team wise, but they hold a commanding position with Bernal and Thomas in second and first.

They can use this to great effect tomorrow, get on attack and force the group into action, and then let the other one go. See which one sticks.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Jumbo Visma are also in a good position with Kruijswijk, but it looks like they're more focussed on climbing onto the podium, rather than going for yellow.

Same with Buchmann. These guys just aren't going to be launching the massive moves.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

That leaves us with Thibaut and FDJ, what's their plan?

I think they'll want to tee up Pinot for an attack on the Iseran, that's where he really needs to go if he's to take yellow tomorrow.

Taking yellow tomorrow is the aim, because then you can just defend...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

...on Val Thorens and not have the pressure on you to attack and make time - the work has already been done.

Pinot definitely has the legs to launch such an attack, but does he have the mettle? We'll see tomorrow.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

So let's start to wrap this #PreviewTime up, it's getting rather long and I can almost smell the curry on its way!

Breakaway chances?

Really good. As long as a big group get away from the start however, like today. They're going to need a big buffer over the Iseran.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

And at least two minutes in hand by the time they start the Montee de Tignes.

Men for the break?

Bardet
S.Yates
Haig
Bilbao
Zakarin
Barguil
Mollema

I struggle to see anyone else able to survive tomorrow's climbs (from the break).

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Now onto some bold predictions!

>Movistar destroy the race on the Iseran, launching #Landisimo
>The infernal pace cracks Ala
>He comes within a minute on the descent, but the gap ebbs again on the final climb
>Pinot tries an attack, but is followed by Bernal

#TDF2019🇫🇷

>The pair duke it out for the stage win.
>Bernal goes into yellow and Pinot into second.

>All is left still to play for on the road to Val Thorens.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

So, which one of those guys am I choosing for tomorrow's stage win?

I'm going to go for Egan Bernal.

This stage has his name written all over it. And I think he's riding into some seriously impressive form.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Remember readers, these final predictions are just my opinions!

The main aim of this #PreviewTime is to give you a detailed analysis of the route and what could potentially happen in each part of it. Use that, and your own wisdom, to pick your own winners!

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Then we can pit our predicted winners against one another and watch them fight it out for glory - yaaaaaas!

Anyways, it's been fabulous chatting to you all as ever, but I've got to go and scran down this curry now.

There are just two stages left for me now...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

...and I'm beginning to see the light at the end of the dimly lit, Alpine tunnel. So, so close.

If you've enjoyed tonight's ramblings then please, drop us a RT, it helps massively❤️

See you all same time tomorrow, don't be late!

#TDF2019🇫🇷 #PreviewTime #OverAndOut