Thread by @InsidePeloton96

A last minute route change may have thrown a spanner in the works, but it isn't going to stop tonight's #PreviewTime!

Stage 20: Albertville > Val Thorens (59km)

This is it. The big one. The last chance saloon. Who's going to win the GC shootout?

#TDF2019🇫🇷

PREVIEW THREAD👇

Well, today's stage was, erm, how do we put it - unpredictable?

From Pinot abandoning the race at the start of the day, to Mother Nature calling an abrupt halt at the end, we really did have it all!

Definitely one for the history books.

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Despite all the drama however, we did get a very interesting GC dynamic unfold on theIseran - Team INEOS finally assuming the dominant control that we've always known them for.

Whether their original plan was to send Thomas or Bernal on the attack...

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...doesn't matter now, they've got a man in yellow and now head right into the final stage in the most commanding position possible: occupying first and second in GC.

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This is now their race to lose.

Without Pinot's panache, and Alaphilippe's swashbuckling skills now waning, it looks like there's no one else who can mount a realistic yellow jersey challenge.

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So is this final GC stage going to finish in a similar way that all the others over the past few years have? With INEOS tapping out a tempo to the finish, neutralising attacks and dropping their lead man off to collect the spoils at the finish line?

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It sure does look like it's heading that way, unfortunately.

The greatest Tour de France of the 21st century is heading the exact same way as the previous decade of editions...

...right into INEOS' hands.

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But what's that I hear? A faint whisper running through the team hotels in Albertville...a muffled voice...a stifled cry...I think I can hear someone trying to speak to me...they're saying...

#FreeLanda

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Before I dive into tomorrow's new route...

...yes I realise I said Bernal and G were first and second just above. They're not. I knew they weren't. My brain is just mush at this point. Forgive me.

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So the new route tomorrow!

It's nowhere near as spectacular as what the organisers had planned, unfortunately, basically now just a glorified hill climb to Val Thorens - the highest ski resort in Europe 😉 #Trivia

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We had the Roseland on the menu tomorrow, as well as the very tricky Cote de Longefoy! Just look at them, glorious!

But now axed from the route 😢

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We also had some very spicy descents as well! Both of these climbs above had perhaps the trickiest descents of the entire race.

But I'm not surprised they've had to cut these bad boys, there would have been absolute carnage even with the tiniest amount of rain!

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So, enough of what could have been, let's focus on what's in store tomorrow.

Just the one climb, but boy is it a colossus!

Val Thorens - 33.5km long, an average grade of 5.5%, topping out at 2,365m.

This is, without a doubt, the hardest climb of the race.

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It's a good job then, isn't it, that it's been kept on tomorrow's route!

If you haven't already check out @Dirtywknd video preview of the climb to Val Thorens, then make sure you do - you won't find better detail anywhere else!

https://twitter.com/Dirtywknd/status/1151947180661530625

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@Dirtywknd But let us summarise the climb here, in classic #PreviewTime terms 😉.

This is not a climb with a consistent gradient, oh no. It chops and changes all the way up which really impacts on a rider's rhythm and their ability to gauge their effort.

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Gauging effort is going to be very important tomorrow, perhaps even more important with the new shorter route.

With everyone arriving fresh, some might jump the gun and burn up too much energy near the start, attacking the steeper opening kilometres.

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As we then get to the more consistent gradients in the second half of the climb they could be found out and struggle when the pace from the big GC boys slowly starts to increase.

Really, it's just one long TT and that's how riders need to approach it tomorrow.

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So, back to the climb.

The steepest ramps come in the first 10km, and with the infernal pace being driven by the GC teams from the bottom, they're really going to explode the race.

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It's also in this first 10km where we get the steepest ramp of them all, a 300m section at around 16.5%.

I'm starting to hear those whispers again...stronger this time...

#FreeLanda

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A little bit after this steep section we then have a brief 1km of flat(ish) ramps - a chance to momentarily regather your strength and assess the race situation.

I can imagine this is how many of the riders will feel in the GC group at this point tomorrow...

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The most crucial part of the climb, in my opinion, is the final 10km.

This is the part where the graidents are relatively consistent, around 7.5%.

This is where the power climbers should be able to find their tempo and start shrinking the gaps.

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The final kilometre of this climb is hellish. Once you pass through the ski resort and think it's almost over you're forced to think again as the road takes you up and out, onto some 9% ramps to the finish line.

This is going to feel like torture.

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The road used to be gravel, but I believe it's been resurfaced for the race (correct me if I'm wrong!).

Here's a picture of the final few hundred metres. Let's just hope there are no skiers about tomorrow 😉

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By the way, if you want to see a proper video of this finish and an awesome detailing of the parcours, then please go and read through @Dirtywknd Val Thorens thread - it's awesome!

https://twitter.com/Dirtywknd/status/1151947180661530625

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@Dirtywknd Right, well I believe a quick #WeatherWatch is in order then isn't it!

With no descents on the menu tomorrow, the weather doesn't matter too much anymore.

But it could still play a role - maybe against some riders morale.

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There is an 85% chance of rain, as well as forecasted thunderstorms, when the race will be climbing Val Thorens tomorrow.

I really do hope there are no more landslides, it could ruin what has been an incredible race so far.

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So, with the weather ticked off, all that's left to talk about now is the tactics!

With the route change this has been simplified massively. We've now basically got one mass start TTT to the top of a giant hill where you only need one of your riders to finish.

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Every big GC team is going to hit the bottom of this one with all of their domestiques, so the pace is going to be infernal.

The rest is all about survival, and which team/leader cracks first.

So it's less about tactics deciding the winner tomorrow...

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...and more about pure power and climbing talent.

Who fits that bill?

Well I can't see anyone else but Bernal.

He's the strongest climber in this race and looks the freshest of the lot. Tomorrow has his name written all over it.

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Could anyone beat him? I don't think so.

I could potentially see a scenario where him and Geraint just ride away from the bunch, and he gifts the stage win to Geraint.

But other than that, it really does look like Bernal's day tomorrow.

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Breakaway chances?

Zilch.

Tomorrow is a full blown GC shootout. Nothing will be left on the road, everyone will empty themselves for their team leader.

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So, before we wrap up this penultimate #PreviewTime, let's make a few predictions about the final GC.

>Alaphilippe will crack further, but just hold onto a top 5 and keep a hungry Landa at bay.

>Kruijswijk and Buchmann will battle for the podium...

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...and Kruijswijk will be the one to come out on top.

>Thomas will finish in second.

>Bernal will win the race.

>And we'll all then proceed to argue on Twitter all about 'what could have been'.

I, for one, am more than ready for that debate...

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And I think that's me done guys!

Apologies if this #PreviewTime was a little rushed, Mother Nature and ASO combined forces to well and truly scupper my plans this evening.

Nonetheless, if you enjoyed it - and better yet - are excited for the final instalment tomorrow...

...then please go ahead and drop a RT on the first tweet in the thread, it helps me out more than you can imagine!

It's been a blast guys, see you all same time tomorrow!

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