,
5 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
Boris Johnson’s talk of re-negotiating the Withdrawal Agreement is a charade. Even if the EU27 concede on the backstop, Boris has two more red lines: the "vassal status" transition period; & the £30+ bn committed w/out leverage over the final relationship chathamhouse.org/expert/comment…
2/5 This leaves Boris with two options. (1) He can challenge Parliament to back / not block a No Deal Brexit or, if that fails, (2) call a general election and secure a mandate for No Deal
3/5 If Britain leaves the EU on 31 October, BJ could try to negotiate a short-term standstill arrangement to give the UK time to put in place procedures to limit economic disruption. At the same time, he would want to start negotiating the future trading and security relationship
4/5 If he has to call an election, Boris will blame the EU for forcing the UK out; double down on his One Nation Conservative vision to rally the undecideds to his side; try to neutralize the Brexit Party by campaigning for No Deal, with Dominic Cummings at the helm
5/5 If his plans are blocked by the EU, Parliament or in an election, or if the economy nosedives amid No Deal uncertainties, British politics will fragment, not only at Boris Johnson’s expense, but at the expense of Britain’s future political stability
chathamhouse.org/expert/comment…
chathamhouse.org/expert/comment…
