Quite a problematic article on the “rollover”. @Rob_Merrick So let me explain some of the issues independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
@Rob_Merrick 1) You will notice the article says that the UK and the EU have agreed that the EU decides when negotiations for the rollover start and they haven’t yet. You’ll also notice that the same article says that the UK has already negotiated rollover with SADC. So what is going on?
2) First things first: there are actually TWO rollover processes. The first one concerns the transition that is in the Withdrawal Agreement. Will the UK benefit from EU Agreements during that period?
3) The second rollover process is the one afterwards, which is supposed to transform EU agreements into UK agreements.
4) As to the FIRST rollover process the Withdrawal Agreement provides in a footnote that the EU will notify treaty partners that the UK counts as a member state during transition.
5) Obviously, the EU can only notify partners that this is to be the case once we are sure there actually will be a transition.
6) So this requires the Withdrawal Agreement to actually enter into force. And even then: third countries have to agree to do a logical split - yes, the UK is no longer a member of the EU. And we agree to ignore that during transition when it comes to our agreements.
7) This also explains why the UK agrees for the EU to take the lead. Because it’s good for the UK. In fact, from everything we know this was a UK ask. (By reading the article you might get a different idea).
8) Rollover number two brings us to beyond 2020. It transforms agreements to UK agreements. Here the reall problem starts. Notice that the article mentioned my pet topic Norway & Switzerland.
9) “Rolling over” the Norway FTA logically means rolling over the EEA. Rolling over the EEA implies being in the Single Market. The government has said a million times it does not want that. Except in the context of rolling over.
10) So just between you and me: Norway will not be rolled over, it will be negotiated as a new FTA. And all others will be negotiated to, even if to a lesser extent, possibly.
11) But here you see why it is so important to distinguish the two rollovers: during transition, the EEA can continue, as the UK continues to be in the Single Market. It is after transition that things change.
12) And yes, I really should type less quickly and avoid typos. It’s undignified. But I noticed that Boris’ unkempt hair keeps any and all criticism from hurting him. So when you think of my typos, be aware that I have sympathetically unkempt hair. I really do.
