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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Adding my t'pence worth to commentary from @DavidHenigUK & @MichaelAodhan on ERG's 'Clean & Managed Brexit' report today.
It's notable that, of the list of amendments they wish to see to Withdrawal Agreement, none are specific to Protocol on IRL/NI containing the #backstop 👇1/3
This is what it wants for @BorderIrish in a future UK-EU 'FTA Plus'.
So. A few Qs:
- what does a 'compliant' border mean in this case?
- does it mean tech that isn't new to Irish border, or tech that exists elsewhere?
- same for 'currently available' admin & tech procedures.
2/3
A 'seamless border' is an oxymoron.

[Ends].
3/3
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More from @hayward_katy see all

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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
THE KEY QUESTION at the nub of the fuss re: #Brexit, the #backstop & @BorderIrish is this:
What the heck has the European Union got to do with #peace here❓

Well, the ANSWER is, when all's said & done, pretty simple.

It’s about the British-Irish relationship.

THREAD 👇 
1/
This was acknowledged by the EU itself 35yrs ago in the Haagerup Report on resolving the conflict.

I'll explain this now by summarising my paper from Cooperation&Conflict @SAGECQPolitics.

[& you can see the Report here. Hurrah for @CAINWebService] 👉
2/
111 people were killed in 1981.
In May 1981, @EuroParl_EN passed a Resolution recognising the EU had ‘no competence to make proposals for changes in the Constitution of N.Ireland’.

110 were killed in 1982.
The Troubles were raging. And there was little prospect of resolution.
3/
Read 17 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Karen Wheeler (formerly of UK govt #Border Delivery group) made some interesting points at @ifgevents #IfGBrexit today.*
Here's a v.brief summary.
1/5
*[so did @AllieRenison and @Lorand_Bartels too, you won't be surprised to hear]
She said UK govt has been trying to guide UK businesses in prep for #NoDeal but particularly difficult for NI.
'Cos v. unclear how IRL wd deal with border.

Without knowing arrangements on the other side, it is extremely difficult for cross-border traders to prepare/comply.

2/5
This leaves NI businesses at a heavy disadvantage in a No Deal, being only prepared for the UK side of trade.

Worsened, she noted, by high number of small businesses in cross-border trade.

Unilateral policy of the UK for land border in a No Deal thus 'somewhat difficult'.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Interesting things afoot in political attitudes in N.Ireland.

The majority of people say they are #Neither Unionist nor Nationalist.
This has risen from 1/3 to ½ since 1998.

Here's a thread summarising my paper at the ‘constitutional futures’ conference @ucddublin today.
1/5
'Neithers' are likely to have a mix of both British & Irish identities.

This compares to ½ Unionists having exclusively British identities & 72% of Nationalists exclusively Irish identities.

So some 'Neithers' are only British, some only Irish & some ‘other’, i.e. mixed!
2/5
This slide shows we can’t read directly across from a #Neither identification to a particular view on NI’s constitutional status.

The majority say they'd vote to remain in the UK but also - notably - ¼ would not vote at all in a border poll.
#context
3/5
Read 5 tweets

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So what to make of @BorisJohnson comments on #Brexit and the Irish border?

My guess is that it is aimed more at Dublin than at Brussels....some thoughts. 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
@BorisJohnson First, the content of what he is saying.

1. The Bill. He wants to attach strings about "when and how" the money is paid over.

This is old Brexiteer (@DavidDavisMP) thinking - the 'bill' as down payment on future, rather than EU view of settling debt /2
@BorisJohnson @DavidDavisMP It's a sensitive subject in Brussels, but I think it's about wanting to argue for a changed dynamic in phase 2.

Boris will argue he will 'tackle hard' in second half, but needs more than warm words. Needs to point to leverage. /3
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Where is France on #Brexit, EP elex, EU top jobs & future of Union? All now very interrelated. Thread based on recent trip to Paris. A lot was made of @EmmanuelMacron stance at last #EUCO. But France's concern is not that UK would act as a "spoiler". This oversimplification 1/
I know majority of officials at UKREP - this isn't how they behave/would behave in Council. France's concern is more subtle-that sheer presence of UK in EU will prevent EU being able to advance a new, substantive agenda beyond 2019. As one official says "UK is 15% of EU budget 2/
"As long as UK is MS, which country would accept a haircut on its expenditures?" So delaying deal on MFF. Or as another official says "Brexit has been good at forcing EU to protect its unity. But it makes it less easy to promote a new vision, new values & a new approach". 3/
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JK
@JKLDNMAD
Nobody wants this Brexit - it's time to grow up, and ditch it. Daily Mirror on 🔥🔥🔥

"If you have to blackmail someone into doing it, the chances are it's not a good idea." #Brexit #BrexitShambles
mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…
"If you have to blackmail the Prime Minister, Cabinet and Parliament; threaten your friends; ignore the predictions of businessmen, scientists and experts; commit the grossest breach of campaign finance law in history...."
#Brexit
"...steal people's data' rely on Russian bots, fake news algorithms and racists; paint lies on a bus and keep Chris Grayling in a job because he was one of the people who thought this was all a great idea..."
#Brexit #BrexitLies
Read 33 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So the #brexit debate is still fogged by confused and wishful thinking.

Here's what I think I know, after chats with both sides. 1/Thread
Let's start with the negotiation in Brussels where @Geoffrey_Cox is trying to secure enough changes to the backstop to change his legal advice that the Irish backstop is a potentially permanent trap.

There was a reason he didn't make his promised speech last week... /2
@Geoffrey_Cox It's because he's struggling (and going to struggle) to get what the ERG wants: either a 'time-limit' or an 'exit mechanism' from the Irish backstop.

My understanding is that discussion is not on time limits, but on "elucidating" the exit-mechanism process/ 3
Read 20 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So the ticklish moment awaits.

Consistent with @tombradby am told #Brexit Withdrawal Agreement texts were in London overnight, came back to Brussels this morning. That they are not finally closed, but the EU is "waiting for verdict" to decide next steps. /1
@tombradby Seems like, per @Steven_Swinford
there are still one or two small areas to fix.

But we wait for Cabinet to be called to decide, essentially, if the 'review mechanism' for the Irish backstop really does create some kind of 'exit clause' for UK.

Cabinet set high bar on this../2
@tombradby @Steven_Swinford Interesting that @rte is quoting EU officials saying they don't expect a deal this week.

So we should discount possibility that Cabinet says 'no'. Although the self-imposed pressure for a Nov 24-25 EU Summit is strong. /3
Read 16 tweets
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Paul Chaplin #FBPE 🇪🇺
@CottlestonPie
I'm currently at this #Brexit conference in Copenhagen, where the British ambassador and several #DExEU officials will be on panels with representatives of Danish trade and security. It'll be very interesting to see what's said, especially in light of May's recent Munich speech.
And now that I'm not desperately trying to keep up with livetweeting it, I shall turn my mess of self-retweets into a proper thread. #Brexit #BrexitDK
acknowledges #Brexit will have challenges; emphasises no naïveté regarding "land of milk and honey". Refreshing sense of pragmatism; we'll see how #DExEU and DK reps present it.

#BrexitDK
Read 55 tweets

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