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Today's political must read come from @RonBrownstein. Ron's piece looks at the limitations of the Trump campaign's racist appeal 2020 strategy, due to the gender gap among white, working class women. As I highlight in my demo/polarization model, there is simply not enough of
of these voters to edge past Ds in the EC if/when Ds fully flex their own turnout muscle. But the Trump campaign strategy is based on the 45% bystander segment of the electorate. They are counting on Ds to underperform their turnout efforts there & they are hoping to overperform
their own by focusing their strategy squarely on identifying & mobilizing non-voters who can be mobilized via racial/cultural animus. If its hard to increase the under 30 vote share by a couple of pts, its VERY hard to bring in non-college educated, low income voters of any age.
But as @RonBrownstein correctly notes, the electorate as it is currently constituted or even as it was constituted in 2016 can not secure a Trump victory. Parscale is no dummy. He's done the math. The strategy is based on adding to the R electorate. Don't forget that.
@RonBrownstein Here is my 2020 model cnu.edu/wasoncenter/20…
