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1/ Those pushing back against my argument this week that Dems should make their 2020 message less about policy/economics & more about the existential threat Trumpism poses to American values of pluralism & multicultural democracy (a morals/values message) break into 2 camps:...
2/ One says focusing on bread&butter issues is more important for getting back Obama-to-Trump voters. The 2nd says bread&butter issues are what drive the base to the polls. Most all agree the hardcore Trump base is lost so it's these 2 groups we're mostly aiming at...
3/ Let's take these 1 at a time & I'll explain why I think these arguments are wrong for both. As for Obama-to-Trump 'switchers,' first, I think there are far fewer of these than most think. This phenomenon is supposedly proved by 2016 exit polls but frankly...
4/ I think lots of white voters lie about having voted for Obama. Especially if they then voted Trump. It's a way to seem less racist. The political equivalent of "I have black friends." Bullshit. Whites regularly lie to make ourselves seem less racist. To pollsters and others..
5/ A good example: in '91 in LA, David Duke got 675k white votes 4 Governor. Years later, a grad student at LSU researching the race came 2 my old boss at the anti-Duke coalition I'd worked for w/ a problem: she couldn't find hardly ANYONE who would admit they'd voted for him...
6/ So I don't trust these claims 2 have voted 4 Obama & then Trump on the part of most claiming it. I suspect precincts flipping in PA/WI/MI was more about different voters showing up in 16 vs '12, than actual conversions. But let's assume the numbers are real...
7/ How the HELL can u possibly craft a strategy to attract the kinds of people who would vote Obama & then Trump? Who would vote 4 the guy who gave them health care & then the guy who promised to take it away from them?...
8/ ...people who would vote for Obama & then the guy who said Obama wasn't even an American? Sorry, but any1 that fickle & malleable is not sizing up health care plans, job creation policies or wealth tax proposals & making rational, fact based decisions...
9/ People like that are channel-surfing & there is no way u can predict accurately what would move them. But whatever it is, it's not likely to be policy. If anything, they're just frustrated & want 'change' 4 change's sake. Fine, if so they'll likely be against Trump now...
10/ ...because their lives haven't likely improved much if at all, so no need to pander to them. On the other hand, they MIGHT be moveable with a moral message about the assault on American values at the heart of Trump's presidency, and the need to stand up for principles...
11/ As for the base, sure, base voters care about bread and butter issues. But they also care about first principles of pluralism and democracy and racial equity. So I doubt the policy focus would be any better than the values focus at driving them out...but it could be worse...
12/ Here's why. Let's say the Dems keep beating each other up for 6 months or so, over whose policies are better...& who's the "real progressive." And who's the "Neo-liberal hack," and whose plans are "too expensive" vs. whose plans are just "gifts to the insurance industry..."
13/ Meanwhile Trump sits back and rallies his base with emotional appeals and values appeals...but Dems? Dems are fighting over multiple versions of the public option and whose college affordability plan is best and who will REALLY take on the bankers...
14/ At the end of the primaries, when one Dem emerges, the supporters of the vanquished are likely to feel embittered. After all, the nominee spent months "lying" about their candidate and his/her plans, and now the nominee is a "far left radical," or "corporate shill," ...
15/ ...or a former prosecutor (and thus "a cop!"), or a "tool of big Pharma," or "not even a Democrat," or whatever. And my fear is the embittered, at least a lot of them, take their toys and go home and refuse to vote. This HAPPENED in 16...lots of Bernie voters did this...
16/ And this time, not only might they do so again, but Biden voters might do it TO Bernie if he got the nod, or to Harris or Warren or whomever, and Harris or Warren's voters might do it too...because the Dems will have spent all that time savaging each other as unacceptable...
17/ However, if the Dems would focus more on this unifying message about our values and how Trumpism poses a threat to those values, and why decent people have to stand up against that threat and save the notion of pluralistic, multicultural democracy...
18/ The base voters from the Democratic camps that don't win the nomination will be less likely to sit it out. They might still be disappointed, sure, but not embittered. Because they will know to keep their eye on the ball. That the real enemy is not each other but Trumpism...
19/ At least in the short run. Yes, in the long run, these deeper debates that have to do with policy are critical to the future of the country and the world. But NONE of those policies can happen if Trump doesn't lose. And his losing seems more likely with a unifying message...
20/ As opposed to these 22 (or however many there are now) Democratic messages about how "I'm better on this, " ..."No, I'm better..."...Fact is, EVERY one of their plans is better than anything Trumpism offers, and that needs to be something they all acknowledge...
21/ Once Trump is defeated & Trumpism repudiated (which requires more than a squeaker victory--it needs 2b overwhelming), we get to debate policy at a high level & focus on that. But the patient is bleeding out... Time for triage, not bickering over long-term treatment options
