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(Thread) The future of the GOP
Harvard Professor Steven Levitsky and conservative columnist @JRubinBlogger agree on how to get out of this mess:
The GOP needs to be crushed in 2020 so that a center-right party can arise from the ashes.
America needs a center right party.
Harvard Professor Steven Levitsky and conservative columnist @JRubinBlogger agree on how to get out of this mess:
The GOP needs to be crushed in 2020 so that a center-right party can arise from the ashes.
America needs a center right party.
@JRubinBlogger 1/ We know how we got into this mess.
Over the past few decades, the GOP transitioned from a conservative to an authoritarian / reactionary party.
For more on how that happened, see ⤵️
Trump is the result of that transition.
Over the past few decades, the GOP transitioned from a conservative to an authoritarian / reactionary party.
For more on how that happened, see ⤵️
Trump is the result of that transition.
@JRubinBlogger 2/ When Trump happened, true conservatives woke up to the reality of what happened to their party—and they began defecting.
@Maxboot, @justinamash, @JRubinBlogger and others had what you might call a rude awakening⤵️
True conservatives now find themselves without a party.
@Maxboot, @justinamash, @JRubinBlogger and others had what you might call a rude awakening⤵️
True conservatives now find themselves without a party.
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 3/ Harvard Prof. Steven Levitsky, an expert in how democracies die, says it's unlikely that the GOP will stop its destructive anti-democratic behavior on its own.
The only real solution, he says, is for the GOP to suffer a series of electoral defeats.
The only real solution, he says, is for the GOP to suffer a series of electoral defeats.
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 4/ It isn’t enough to squeak out a win for the Democrats in 2020.
2020 has to be a drubbing for the GOP.
Conservative columnist Jennifer Rubin agrees. She says, "Trump and his enablers up and down the ticket must be defeated. . ." ⤵️
2020 has to be a drubbing for the GOP.
Conservative columnist Jennifer Rubin agrees. She says, "Trump and his enablers up and down the ticket must be defeated. . ." ⤵️
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 5/ Professors Ziblatt and Levitsky, in How Democracies Die, explain that:
The GOP’s “twenty-five year march to the right was made possible by the hollowing of its organization center,” which “left the party vulnerable to takeover by extremists.”
The GOP’s “twenty-five year march to the right was made possible by the hollowing of its organization center,” which “left the party vulnerable to takeover by extremists.”
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 6/ Ziblatt and Levitsky give the solution: The GOP (or a different center-right party) must be “reformed, if not refounded outright.”
They acknowledge that this is a “tall order,” but they give historical precedents: It can and has been done.
They acknowledge that this is a “tall order,” but they give historical precedents: It can and has been done.
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 7/ While America needs two parties, we’ve had transition periods after one party goes down in flames before another arises.
During our first few decades, we had the Federalists (the party of Alexander Hamilton) and the Democratic Republicans (the party of Thomas Jefferson.)
During our first few decades, we had the Federalists (the party of Alexander Hamilton) and the Democratic Republicans (the party of Thomas Jefferson.)
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 8/ The Federalist lost power when Hamilton died, and they opposed to the war of 1812, which pegged them as unpatriotic.
history.com/topics/early-u…
By 1828, the Federalist Party was dead.
The Democratic-Republicans basically stood alone until the rise of the Whigs (1835-1854)
history.com/topics/early-u…
By 1828, the Federalist Party was dead.
The Democratic-Republicans basically stood alone until the rise of the Whigs (1835-1854)
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 9/ Then the Whigs split over slavery and crumbled. In 1854 the GOP was born.
If the GOP gets crushed in 2020, then
💠The GOP becomes a fringe extremist party, and a new center-right party is born* OR
💠The conservatives retake the GOP.
(*Yes, the Democrats can split)
If the GOP gets crushed in 2020, then
💠The GOP becomes a fringe extremist party, and a new center-right party is born* OR
💠The conservatives retake the GOP.
(*Yes, the Democrats can split)
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 10/ The problem for conservatives will be figuring out how to achieve electoral majorities without courting the KKK and other extremists, and without kowtowing to FOX and other right wing media outlets.
For the past few decades, they counted on the fringe to get a majority.
For the past few decades, they counted on the fringe to get a majority.
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 11/ Levitsky says a reformed center-right party will have to figure out how to compete for urban and non-white voters.
Obviously you can’t appeal to non-white voters AND the KKK.
You have to pick.
Obviously you can’t appeal to non-white voters AND the KKK.
You have to pick.
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 12/ It will take a few years for a new center-right party (or a reformed GOP) to find its legs and voice, but it can be done.
In ⤵️Levitsky and Ziblatt offer historical precedents for the rebirth of a brand new center-right party, including the CDU in post WWII West Germany.
In ⤵️Levitsky and Ziblatt offer historical precedents for the rebirth of a brand new center-right party, including the CDU in post WWII West Germany.
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 13/ The CDU, founded by conservatives, “separated itself from extremists and authoritarians.”
So what’s next for the GOP?
The future of the GOP isn’t looking good right now.
The Cook Political Report moved Collins Senate race to a tossup.
msn.com/en-us/news/pol…
So what’s next for the GOP?
The future of the GOP isn’t looking good right now.
The Cook Political Report moved Collins Senate race to a tossup.
msn.com/en-us/news/pol…
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 14/ 538 rates the Fox poll A+.
The numbers don’t look good for the Trump-GOP.
beta.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/…
Remember 2016 when Trump was in love with polls? There was a reason. He knows how to read them.
As we move toward Nov. 2020 and Trump faces the prospect of a big loss. . .
The numbers don’t look good for the Trump-GOP.
beta.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/…
Remember 2016 when Trump was in love with polls? There was a reason. He knows how to read them.
As we move toward Nov. 2020 and Trump faces the prospect of a big loss. . .
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 15/ . . . he’ll get desperate.
He’ll up the ante on the racism, xenophobia, and hate.
The GOP knows that their electorate is aging and shrinking.
The right wing element of the GOP will view a potential loss in 2020 as a catastrophic existential threat.
He’ll up the ante on the racism, xenophobia, and hate.
The GOP knows that their electorate is aging and shrinking.
The right wing element of the GOP will view a potential loss in 2020 as a catastrophic existential threat.
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 16/ And they’re right. The aging white male patriarchy loving GOP members are a shrinking minority.
There will be more defections.
cnn.com/2018/12/19/pol…
A major loss in 2020 will throw the GOP into crisis.
There will be more defections.
cnn.com/2018/12/19/pol…
A major loss in 2020 will throw the GOP into crisis.
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 17/ I think people understand that squeaking out a win won't end this nightmare.
That’s why I don’t think anyone will get complacent when the polls show the GOP heading for defeat.
During the years it takes a new center-right party to find its legs, the Dems will in elections.
That’s why I don’t think anyone will get complacent when the polls show the GOP heading for defeat.
During the years it takes a new center-right party to find its legs, the Dems will in elections.
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 18/ The abuses put in place by GOP extremists can be undone in the usual course of passing legislation and replacing judges.
But first 2020 needs to be a landslide.
If you feel discouraged about the amount of work that needs to be done, think about Susan B. Anthony. . .
But first 2020 needs to be a landslide.
If you feel discouraged about the amount of work that needs to be done, think about Susan B. Anthony. . .
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash 19/ . . . and what she was up against.
See:
I practice what I preach. I spent time this week as a volunteer updating a DNC election guide legal manual.
What are you doing? See my list: terikanefield-blog.com/things-to-do/
(spreading doubt and gloom doesn’t count)
See:
I practice what I preach. I spent time this week as a volunteer updating a DNC election guide legal manual.
What are you doing? See my list: terikanefield-blog.com/things-to-do/
(spreading doubt and gloom doesn’t count)
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash This is an interesting point⤵️
Certainly as American conservatism came to be defined in the mid-20th century (a reaction to FDR, with the unifying goal of rolling back the New Deal) the conservatives could never achieve an electoral majority . . .
Certainly as American conservatism came to be defined in the mid-20th century (a reaction to FDR, with the unifying goal of rolling back the New Deal) the conservatives could never achieve an electoral majority . . .
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash . . . which was why they needed to invite the white supremacists and other fringe extremist into their party, and then kowtow for their votes.
But conservatism as someone like @JonHaidt defines the mindset could achieve a majority.
Start reading here:
But conservatism as someone like @JonHaidt defines the mindset could achieve a majority.
Start reading here:
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash @JonHaidt There was confusion about how I was using terms in this thread. See⤵️
@JonHaidt gives (in my opinion) the best definition of liberal v. conservative, or left v. right.
In a nutshell, liberals are comfortable with change and new things.
Conservatives like the status quo . . .
@JonHaidt gives (in my opinion) the best definition of liberal v. conservative, or left v. right.
In a nutshell, liberals are comfortable with change and new things.
Conservatives like the status quo . . .
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash @JonHaidt Reactionaries look backward to a bygone era, and want to return us to that era. (Therefore, unlike conservatives, they are comfortable with rapid change—moving us back)
Radicals look ahead to a better future and want to bring us to that future as quickly as possible . . .
Radicals look ahead to a better future and want to bring us to that future as quickly as possible . . .
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash @JonHaidt So the difference between center-left and center-right is that center right is uncomfortable with change, and center-left wants incremental change.
Biology shows that conservatives and liberals have different brain types.
cell.com/current-biolog…
This Current Biology article. . .
Biology shows that conservatives and liberals have different brain types.
cell.com/current-biolog…
This Current Biology article. . .
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash @JonHaidt . . . concludes that self-identified conservatives have a larger amygdala than liberals.
The size of the amygdala correlates to increased fearfulness. Conservatives thus experience the world as a more fearful place, and are more fearful of rapid change.
I've written about. . .
The size of the amygdala correlates to increased fearfulness. Conservatives thus experience the world as a more fearful place, and are more fearful of rapid change.
I've written about. . .
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash @JonHaidt . . . the difference between reactionaries (commonly called right wing authoritarians) and conservatives, here:
I've noticed this: the far right tends to use the word "liberal" to mean "anyone who doesn't agree with us." Trump uses liberal to mean . . .
I've noticed this: the far right tends to use the word "liberal" to mean "anyone who doesn't agree with us." Trump uses liberal to mean . . .
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash @JonHaidt . . . "anyone who doesn't agree with me."
Those on the far left tend to use "center-right" to apply to anyone who wants incremental change instead of rapid change.
This is important from @karen_stenner: Three groups self-identify as 'conservative.' They are:
Those on the far left tend to use "center-right" to apply to anyone who wants incremental change instead of rapid change.
This is important from @karen_stenner: Three groups self-identify as 'conservative.' They are:
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash @JonHaidt @karen_stenner . . .
💠First, the group Stenner calls "status quo" conservatives (they don't like change). I tend to call them "traditional" or "true" conservatives, by which I mean they fit the psychological profile of conservatives.
💠Libertarians (I've had libertarians tell me . . .
💠First, the group Stenner calls "status quo" conservatives (they don't like change). I tend to call them "traditional" or "true" conservatives, by which I mean they fit the psychological profile of conservatives.
💠Libertarians (I've had libertarians tell me . . .
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash @JonHaidt @karen_stenner . . . they're not on the spectrum at all !! or that the spectrum doesn't apply to them. Psychologists, though, classify them as right wing, which they hate.) See Karen Stenner.
💠Third, reactionaries indentify as conservative. I think they simply co-opted the word . . .
💠Third, reactionaries indentify as conservative. I think they simply co-opted the word . . .
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash @JonHaidt @karen_stenner . . . "conservative" when they took over the GOP. The word "conservative" has good connotations.
There's nothing conservative about reactionaries.
MAGA is a reactionary manifesto: let's go back to a bygone, better, more orderly era.
I think it's helpful to define terms . . .
There's nothing conservative about reactionaries.
MAGA is a reactionary manifesto: let's go back to a bygone, better, more orderly era.
I think it's helpful to define terms . . .
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash @JonHaidt @karen_stenner . . . we can disagree about what words we should be using, but if people understand how I am using "center-left" and "center-right" they'll at least follow my meaning.
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash @JonHaidt @karen_stenner Whenever I cite psychology studies showing that brain difference explains political differences, I get a lot of push back. Someone even suggested that I'm going in the eugenics direction.
On the contrary, for me, if people are mostly or somewhat born that way . . .
On the contrary, for me, if people are mostly or somewhat born that way . . .
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash @JonHaidt @karen_stenner . . . I think it helps feel sympathy.
Those on the right side of the spectrum are afraid and fearful because their brains are wired differently.
This may be a horrible example, but here goes: My terrier is fearful. I've been able to lessen his fear of skateboards. . .
Those on the right side of the spectrum are afraid and fearful because their brains are wired differently.
This may be a horrible example, but here goes: My terrier is fearful. I've been able to lessen his fear of skateboards. . .
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash @JonHaidt @karen_stenner . . . but the fear comes back. A lot of my dog's behavior comes from his fears. (I'm repeating the dog trainer here).
Current Biology is a respected journal. As I understand it, science pretty conclusively shows brain differences correleate to political difference.
Current Biology is a respected journal. As I understand it, science pretty conclusively shows brain differences correleate to political difference.
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash @JonHaidt @karen_stenner
Exactly. That's why I like Haidt's explanation of conservatives v liberals⤵️
Fear is a good thing. It keeps people from rushing into danger.
That's why I started by saying "American needs a center-right" party.
Exactly. That's why I like Haidt's explanation of conservatives v liberals⤵️
Fear is a good thing. It keeps people from rushing into danger.
That's why I started by saying "American needs a center-right" party.
@JRubinBlogger @MaxBoot @justinamash @JonHaidt @karen_stenner Here's Haidt's explanation of conservatives v. liberals.
The point: America needs a center-right party.
The point: America needs a center-right party.
