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Excellent reporting by @pmdfoster. There's few data points which reinforce his thesis. & a few that don't. We've been on softer side re Govt seriousness for deal - tho we've always argued a deal (15%) is still less likely than no deal (30%) or GE (45% basecase). Quick thoughts 1/
Data points which reinforce @pmdfoster thesis: 1) lots of scepticism about Frost' role in EU. Question if he has mandate to test ideas/do deal. Raises questions about process he's leading; 2) more scepticism in @EU_Commission than EU capitals about process 2/
Driven by what they're seeing, yes. But may also be because they're now just too close to it - after 3 years of negotiations and game playing by UK; 3) Scepticism about "slimmed down" SPS backstop 3/
Many senior EU officials tasked with managing Brexit haven't even heard about idea - until it was up on Twitter. "Only addresses issues of the mad cow" is how one senior EU official put it to me. Nothing on customs. Nothing on LPF issues for whole UK 4/
Counter points to @pmdfoster thesis: 4) On Govt not presenting plans - not fatal. Even EU side wasn't expecting much until run up to or at Oct Council. Of course there'll be huge pushback to idea that deal can be done then; but this impeccably well sourced *EU view* about when 5/
deal cd/would likely come together; 5) EU clearly sees BJ's approach to Brexit as inherently political - it's precisely for this reason they think he may be able to deliver a deal. Inevitable then that process in Bxl is, on some level, about domestic politics/party management 6/
Shouldn't be huge surprise. Esp given timeframe EU sees as likely if there's deal; 3) BJ trips to Berlin/Paris had decisive impact on views in EU capitals that Govt more open to deal. These senior officials at top of food chain no fools - & wouldn't have easily been spun 7/
8/ Lastly, as I wrote yest, Oct election represents a *huge risk* for @BorisJohnson - his preference is/was Nov. @jeremycorbyn also under huge pressure now as Labour sense trap. Basecase has always been election - but lots of politics still has to happen before we're there ENDS 
