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So.. moving target. Briefly. We see 3 election timescales: 1) The one @BorisJohnson would prefer would be in early Nov, so UK would leave EU in middle of campaign with no-deal if his efforts to strike a last-minute deal failed 1/
This could happen if MPs pass VONC in Govt and fail to agree caretaker PM. BJ would prefer to have an election imposed on him so he could fight a “people versus parliament” election. Preparations at Conservative Campaign HQ are based on this scenario 2/
2) But increasing signs @BorisJohnson may have to seek an election as MPs become wary of a VONC. Some Bories allies believe he will do so as early as Weds if he loses tomorrow’s parliamentary showdown with no-deal opponents. He would need the support of two-thirds of MPs 3/
On face of it, Labour would have to back election since @jeremycorbyn has repeatedly demanded one, and did so again in speech today. But some Labour figures now sense a trap & are warning Corbyn against a Nov election, saying stopping no-deal must be his priority. So unclear 4/
He would have to insist on an election before Brexit, perhaps on 17 or 24 October. Cabinet ministers privately acknowledge such a backstage agreement with Labour might be necessary 5/
3) The third scenario is an election held soon after Brexit. This could be in November in an attempt to cash in on delivering Brexit, although some Johnson advisers urge him to wait until next April or May 6/
Re this week: rebels believe there's just time to push through a law to stop no-deal. A Bill has been drafted and is being kept under wraps until tomorrow. We think it would force PM to seek an A50 extension beyond 31 Oct if no agreement has been reached, possibly until 31 Jan 7/
But the vote on the Bill will likely be close. “The majority will be in single figures either way”, says one well-placed rebel leader. “Despite all the threats, we think we still have the numbers.” So rebels confident; and an election, per above, now seems inevitable ENDS
