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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
.@BorisJohnson working overtime in Commons statement to convince wavering Tory MPs not to support “Jeremy Corbyn’s surrender Bill” by insisting there is “real momentum in the Brexit discussions.” He's confident of a deal, chances rising. Bxl less so 1/3
He will meet Irish PM Leo Varadkar in Dublin on Monday; talks will include cross-border management of agri-foods. But Tory rebels seem unconvinced; think Boris' overhyping progress to limit revolt, not least as PM dodged request from Philip Hammond to publish his alternative 2/3
to Irish backstop before tonight’s vote 3/3
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Not raised in talks among no-deal opponents. They have liaised closely with the clerks who advise the Speaker, and with John Bercow himself. I think the clerks would have anticipated it if Queen’s consent was likely to be a problem 1/3
If it became a barrier, I suspect the Speaker would find a way round it.
Some in No10 hoped the A50 extension Bill would not receive Royal Assent if PM did not send it to the Queen before Parliament prorogued next week 2/3
But that won’t work if Bill passes both Houses; any legislation that has done so automatically receives Royal Assent on prorogation 3/3
Read 3 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Excellent reporting by @pmdfoster. There's few data points which reinforce his thesis. & a few that don't. We've been on softer side re Govt seriousness for deal - tho we've always argued a deal (15%) is still less likely than no deal (30%) or GE (45% basecase). Quick thoughts 1/
Data points which reinforce @pmdfoster thesis: 1) lots of scepticism about Frost' role in EU. Question if he has mandate to test ideas/do deal. Raises questions about process he's leading; 2) more scepticism in @EU_Commission than EU capitals about process 2/
Driven by what they're seeing, yes. But may also be because they're now just too close to it - after 3 years of negotiations and game playing by UK; 3) Scepticism about "slimmed down" SPS backstop 3/
Read 8 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
So.. moving target. Briefly. We see 3 election timescales: 1) The one @BorisJohnson would prefer would be in early Nov, so UK would leave EU in middle of campaign with no-deal if his efforts to strike a last-minute deal failed 1/
This could happen if MPs pass VONC in Govt and fail to agree caretaker PM. BJ would prefer to have an election imposed on him so he could fight a “people versus parliament” election. Preparations at Conservative Campaign HQ are based on this scenario 2/
2) But increasing signs @BorisJohnson may have to seek an election as MPs become wary of a VONC. Some Bories allies believe he will do so as early as Weds if he loses tomorrow’s parliamentary showdown with no-deal opponents. He would need the support of two-thirds of MPs 3/
Read 8 tweets

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Jonathan Lis
@jonlis1
Johnson sounds rattled and desperate. Describes the bill sponsored by senior Tories as ‘Jeremy Corbyn’s surrender bill’. The only things the opposition are surrendering to are the principles of parliamentary democracy and maintaining people’s livelihoods.
Corbyn doing a good job. ‘This government is hiding from scrutiny. Not just a gov of chaos but a gov of cowardice’.

Johnson sounds like he’s debating at the Oxford Union. Corbyn sounds like he’s speaking to ordinary people at home. Wonder if Tories have underestimated him?
Corbyn upbraids Johnson for using word ‘surrender’. Points out the apparently surprising fact we’re not actually at war with Europe, and that no-deal would be the real surrender. Hilarious that the people shutting down parliamentary sovereignty describe this guy as the radical.
Read 8 tweets
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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
Right well, the most historic day in parliament since the last one is about to kick off. You can follow along here parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/ff…
I'll be covering it, ageing in real time, pretty much throughout, apart from when I dash out for vaping, Gregg's sausage rolls, and eventually probably gin and tonics.
Loads of shit to get through before the crucial debate. It's basically a timetable from the depths of hell.
Read 284 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Corbyn as caretaker PM? Seriously?

Yes, we want to stop no deal #Brexit, yes we'll go to any lengths, but the solution must be realistic, and it's leader must have some integrity

Corbyn as a caretaker PM is a non starter, and it's surprising so many have been taken in
2) Firstly, Corbyn is simply untrustworthy on #Brexit. Have we all forgotten the 2 steps forward 3 steps back fence sitting? The comments from front benchers undermined within hours by a "Labour spokesman"?

Nothing Corbyn says on Brexit can be taken at face value
3) he is a leaver, this is his priority, so the very idea of a committed but dishonest brexiter leading an anti #Brexit government is too ludicrous to even contemplate. Every day of his premiership would be one of forked tongue non commitments to help shepherd Brexit
Read 10 tweets
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⚢⚧🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸
@SakuraNoSeirei
#Brexit news for today:

Nigel Adams, Minister for Wales, and Governement whip has resigned the #Cabinet over #TheresaMay's way forward.

1/n
You can hear #TheresaMay's reaction from here

2/n
So the splitting of the #ToryParty continues. Where will it end? And can we expect resignations from #Labour if #Corbyn is seen as giving up too much to #TheresaMay during the discussions tonight.

3/n
Read 92 tweets
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
Read 125 tweets
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Antonello Guerrera
@antoguerrera
Why Jeremy Corbyn has changed his mind on a 2nd #Brexit referendum and why this might paradoxically help May to get her deal through the Parliament. A thread from my article in @repubblica

(I usually do this Brexit stuff in Italian, I’ll try in English now, hope to be decent 😊)
First of all, the most obvious thing: Corbyn did this move not only because of a new Brexit strategy but above all because of a party strategy: the hemorrhage of moderate or outraged MPs had to be stopped somehow. The Independent group surely was concerning him. We’ll see.
Sure this move won’t stop the MPs shocked by the accusations of antisemitism, but it might have a good impact on the europhile ones. The new mantra is clear: until the choice is between May’s deal and No Deal, the new Labour weapon is a new, 2nd referendum.
#Brexit
Read 19 tweets

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