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Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwart
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Non-Farm payrolls come in below expectations.

Wages grow 3.2% year over yeara, nicely beating expectations.

Labor Force Participation Rate rises to 63.2% from 63%

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Futures slipping a little bit after the data

The combination of slower-than-expected hiring + hotter-than-expected wage growth.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"Revisions subtracted 20,000 jobs from the prior two months, bringing the three-month nonfarm average to 156,000." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Labor Force Participation Rate back to the highest level post-crisis, though still nowhere close to pre-crisis levels
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%
My warm take on today's jobs data: It doesn't change the story much in any direction.
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More from @TheStalwart see all

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Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwart
This isn't good. One measure of U.S. manufacturing just slid into contraction for the first time in 3 years.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Multiple respondents in the ISM survey warned about the impact of tariffs and the trade war. None of the spotlighted comments mentioned the Fed as a contributor to the slowdown. instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ismreport/mfgr…
Treasury yields are tanking again. 10-year down to 1.44% after that ugly ISM report. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 6 tweets
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Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwart
Random question for people who worry that the Fed could "run out of bullets" because the policy rate is already fairly close to zero.

Couldn't the Fed not stimulate further by saying something like "We're never going to hike again until the unemployment rate falls below 2.5%"?
Seems like there's a virtually unlimited number of forward guidance approaches that could be powerful and blunt?

"We're not going to worry about inflation until we see 6 prints in a row of core CPI over 3%." That's another one. Seems like there's plenty of bullets.
I've always thought that, in retrospect, in 2010 after the Fed was at zero, the Fed should've just announced a multi-year vacation. No meetings, with the message that they'd check in again in 2015.
Read 4 tweets
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Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwart
Ok, I'll probably regret this, but given the poll results, I'm going to do a thread on why the inversion of the yield curve is seen as a potentially ominous sign and harbinger of eventual recession.
(Warning: I'm also going to make a few oversimplifications that bond market traders and MMT folks probably won't like, but such is life)
Ok, so here goes.

As you may have heard, the U.S. borrows a lot of money in the form of bond, which we refer to as Treasuries.

Treasuries are considered to be among the safest financial assets that exist in the world.
Read 27 tweets

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