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Interesting poll from @UnivisionNews that could spell doom for any GOP presidential hopes in not only the 2020 election, but any future presidential election. They have Trump trailing a generic Democrat by five points, 47-42, with 11% undecided.
That is because Texas has been the one safe state for the GOP among the Big Four in the Electoral College, which consists of California, Florida, New York, and Texas. Those four states award a total of 151 electoral votes, 28% of all the votes in the Electoral College.
Since the 1990 redistricting, when Florida surpassed Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to join CA, NY, and TX as the states that award the four highest electoral vote totals (it's now tied with NY for third-most at 29), there has clearly been a "Big Four" in the Electoral College.
And since 1996, Florida has been the key swing state. When the GOP candidate has taken FL, thus splitting the Big Four with his Democratic rival, that candidate has won, but when the Democratic candidate took FL, giving him three of the Big Four, it led to an EC blowout.
That gets us to the @UnivisionNews poll. If the Democrat were to somehow take Texas, and remember that the election is still 14 months away, it's Game Over, and not just for 2020, but future elections, since that would mean a likely SWEEP of the Big Four in the Electoral College.
After all, a sweep of the Big Four (CA, FL, NY, and TX) would net a candidate 151 electoral votes, which not only represents 28% of all the votes in the Electoral College, but also 56% of what a candidate would need to take the presidency in just those four states.
And if that candidate was the Democrat, it's almost certain that Illinois and the entire northeast is in his pocket before the election would even begin, and if he takes TX, there's a strong chance that AZ, NC, and GA would also fall. That doesn't even consider MI, PA, and WI.
Should that scenario, as unlikely it is would seem to be, fall in place, we could have our first true landslide election since 1988, when GHW Bush trounced Michael Dukakis. (In my view, it takes 40 states and/or 400 electoral votes for an election to be considered a landslide).
