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Richard DeMillo
@rad_atl
, 2 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
When someone says "you can't meaningfully audit elections conducted on BMDs, what do they mean? This is the inner loop of RLAs. The observations m_w and m_l aren't random variables. If they are rv's, then T has an unknown pdf and algorithm can incorrectly confirm with higher risk
2/Why is this a BMD problem? Upward of 50% of the ballots cast will be unverified. With each draw the classification for the reported winner vs loser depends on whether the ballot was drawn from the fraudulent-but-unverified pile or not. That happens with unknown probability.
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More from @rad_atl see all

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Richard DeMillo
@rad_atl
1/Building on my thread threadreaderapp.com/thread/1167416… this week as a warm up to a paper that shows voter verification of BMD output is a fantasy that has no basis in theory or practice. Voter verification depends on assumptions that are not true. But here's one that I had overlooked:
2/In addition to cognitive limitations of memory, the very idea of voter verification takes into account neither "change blindness" nor "choice blindness." As Petter Johansson and Lars Hall explain in their paper pdfs.semanticscholar.org/559c/ea673416a…
3/The idea that significant numbers of voters will and can check the possibly fraudulent output of compromised #BallotMarkingDevices and detect the errors has no merit at all. Everywhere I look there are counterexamples and theoretical hurdles.
Read 6 tweets
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Richard DeMillo
@rad_atl
1/ More on the science of voter verification of ballots: Those who think voters can improve their error detection effectiveness are flying in the face of established science and the consolidation of error studies across many disciplines that took place in the 1970s-80s.
2/A major reference is James Reason's 1991 "Human Error"
cambridge.org/core/books/hum…
3/Here are the take-aways that IMO make it difficult for voter-verification. Studies show error detection is much harder than the original task. That is, while diligent people can be trained to minimize errors in cognitive tasks, error detection rates hover around 50-80 percent
Read 8 tweets
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Richard DeMillo
@rad_atl
1/ The argument seems to be that untrained, unmotivated, possibly stressed-out, tired, mildly cognitively impaired (if over 50) voters can be encouraged to verify machine-marked paper ballots effectively enough to make them useful and trusted paper trails for Risk-Limiting Audits
2/If a fraction of machine-cast votes are unverified, then RLAs become a meaningless exercise bc an attacker of a close election can always arrange for a complete hand-recount which necessarily sweeps these poisoned ballots into the final audited tally.
3/So let’s test this with a similar task, say proof-reading, another error-detection skill involving searching for errors in a document. I am willing to admit that I am at present a terrible proof-reader. But I believe that with training and experience I can improve.
Read 12 tweets

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